Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics in the Context of Climate Change: A Fractional Model with A Probability Density Function Approach

Abstract

We analyze how climate change affects marine oxygen production by modeling plankton--oxygen dynamics with a fractional-order nonlinear system and establishing rigorous conditions for the model's well-posedness. We formulate a three-dimensional system $d^\alpha x(t)/dt^\alpha = A x(t) + f(x(t))$, where $A$ is a diagonal $3\times 3$ matrix and $f$ is nonlinear. We (i) rigorously state the model, (ii) derive a Lipschitz constant for $f$ under suitable assumptions, and (iii) prove existence, uniqueness, and continuous dependence on initial data using a fractional formula with a probability density kernel and a generalized Gr"onwall inequality. Under the stated conditions, $f$ satisfies a computable Lipschitz bound that yields existence and uniqueness of solutions for the fractional system, and the solutions depend continuously on initial conditions, establishing the well-posedness of the plankton--oxygen model. We introduce a fractional, PDF-kernel--based framework for plankton--oxygen dynamics and provide general proofs of well-posedness via a generalized Gr"onwall approach, capturing memory effects that classical integer-order models miss. These results justify numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses of fractional marine-ecosystem models, providing a sound basis for testing mitigation and management strategies affecting oxygen dynamics and supporting evidence-based policies for protecting marine ecosystems under global warming.