An Innovations-Based Data-Driven Kalman Predictor for Predictive Control

Mohamed Abdalmoaty; Roy S. Smith

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arXiv · 2511.07907

An Innovations-Based Data-Driven Kalman Predictor for Predictive Control

Mohamed Abdalmoaty·Roy S. Smith

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Abstract

A recently developed data-driven Kalman filter requires offline measurement of the process disturbance; a requirement that is often unmet for many practical applications. We propose a solution that parametrizes the Kalman filter exclusively using measured input and output data. The key idea is to use the innovations form which naturally accounts for the process disturbance and measurement noise into a single orthogonal stochastic process. Unlike process disturbances, the innovations process can be estimated directly from input-output data via a numerically efficient projection step. The performance of the method is demonstrated using a benchmark simulation.

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Mohamed Abdalmoaty, Roy S. Smith. 2025-11-11. An Innovations-Based Data-Driven Kalman Predictor for Predictive Control. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.07907

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