Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models

Linnea M. Wolniewicz; Halil S. Kelebek; Simone Mestici; Michael D. Vergalla; Giacomo Acciarini; Bala Poduval; Olga Verkhoglyadova; Madhulika Guhathakurta; Thomas E. Berger; Atılım Güneş Baydin; Frank Soboczenski

arXiv · 2511.15743

Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models

Linnea M. Wolniewicz·Halil S. Kelebek·Simone Mestici·Michael D. Vergalla·Giacomo Acciarini·Bala Poduval·Olga Verkhoglyadova·Madhulika Guhathakurta·Thomas E. Berger·Atılım Güneş Baydin·Frank Soboczenski

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Abstract

Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.

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Linnea M. Wolniewicz, Halil S. Kelebek, Simone Mestici, Michael D. Vergalla, Giacomo Acciarini, Bala Poduval, Olga Verkhoglyadova, Madhulika Guhathakurta, Thomas E. Berger, Atılım Güneş Baydin, Frank Soboczenski. 2025-11-18. Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15743

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