SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2512.11732

Spatially Varying Gene Regulatory Networks via Bayesian Nonparametric Covariate-Dependent Directed Cyclic Graphical Models

Abstract

Spatial transcriptomics technologies enable the measurement of gene expression with spatial context, providing opportunities to understand how gene regulatory networks vary across tissue regions. However, existing graphical models focus primarily on undirected graphs or directed acyclic graphs, limiting their ability to capture feedback loops that are prevalent in gene regulation. Moreover, ensuring the so-called stability condition of cyclic graphs, while allowing graph structures to vary continuously with spatial covariates, presents significant statistical and computational challenges. We propose BNP-DCGx, a Bayesian nonparametric approach for learning spatially varying gene regulatory networks via covariate-dependent directed cyclic graphical models. Our method introduces a covariate-dependent random partition as an intermediary layer in a hierarchical model, which discretizes the covariate space into clusters with cluster-specific stable directed cyclic graphs. Through partition averaging, we obtain smoothly varying graph structures over space while maintaining theoretical guarantees of stability. We develop an efficient parallel tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference and demonstrate through simulations that our method accurately recovers both piecewise constant and continuously varying graph structures. Application to spatial transcriptomics data from human dorsolateral prefrontal cortex reveals spatially varying regulatory networks with feedback loops, identifies potential cell subtypes within established cell types based on distinct regulatory mechanisms, and provides new insights into spatial organization of gene regulation in brain tissue.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Trisha Dawn, Yang Ni. 2025-12-12. Spatially Varying Gene Regulatory Networks via Bayesian Nonparametric Covariate-Dependent Directed Cyclic Graphical Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.11732

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Surprise Reduction and Nullification in Bayesian and Inverse Bayesian Inference under Ambiguous Prediction-Error Attribution

In non-stationary environments, prediction errors may signal environmental change or transient outliers, and adaptive systems must track such changes without overreacting to outliers. We distinguish surprise reduction, which updates beliefs to fit observations, from surprise nullification, which weakens constraints imposed by the predictive structure, and formalize both within Bayesian and inverse Bayesian (BIB) inference. Belief and likelihood updates are derived from variational objectives sharing a nullification strength, determined endogenously by minimizing surprise under the candidate post-update predictive distribution. In the Gaussian case, nullification expands belief and likelihood variances by a common factor relative to standard Bayesian updating, leaving the ratio unchanged. BIB thus defers attribution of the prediction error, committing to neither latent-state change nor observation-process uncertainty. The nullification strength is carried over as a candidate and is maintained or released according to the predictive surprise of the next observation. In a mean estimation task with outliers and changepoints, no scanned parameter setting of a Sage-Husa-type adaptive Kalman filter, fixed-strength BIB variant, or belief-forgetting-only variant outperforms BIB in both changepoint tracking and post-outlier stability. An oracle-informed reduced Bayesian model tracks changepoints better but is less stable after outliers. Although BIB maintains no explicit hypotheses about changepoints or outliers, it generates event-dependent dynamics. The learning rate increases after changepoints, whereas after outliers, nullification is released, and this increase is suppressed. Deferring attribution and letting subsequent observations differentiate the responses may constitute a principle of adaptive inference in non-stationary environments.

stat.ME

Generalized Ridge Refitting for the Lasso and Prediction Improvement Bounds

We study a class of Lasso based estimators obtained by applying a quadratic correction on the Lasso equicorrelation set. The penalty matrix determines both the magnitude and geometry of the correction and contains, among other cases, the isotropic Lasso--Ridge correction, least squares refitting, Gram proportional interpolation between the Lasso and least squares, and coordinate specific penalties. We first derive a closed form representation and isolate the positive gain component of the resulting prediction improvement. We then control the remaining stochastic linear term in expectation by localizing the random signed equicorrelation model around a deterministic reference support. This yields a finite sample expectation bound that explicitly accounts for the randomness induced by Lasso model selection. The resulting decomposition provides a unified framework for understanding when Lasso based quadratic corrections can improve prediction.

stat.ME

Discretization in covariate-adaptive randomization: gains and losses

Covariate-adaptive randomization(CAR) is widely implemented in clinical trials to balance prognostic covariates across treatment arms. Continuous covariates are often discretized into strata in practice, yet their consequences are not clearly understood. This paper provides a comprehensive study of the impact of discretization on both the CAR design process and the inferential results thereafter. We establish the asymptotic properties of both imbalance measures and treatment effect estimators under discretized and non-discretized settings. Practical recommendations are given on when and how discretization should be employed. We show that discretization in design is generally recommended, as it enhances robustness against model misspecification. However, if the true model is known, the most efficient strategy is to balance covariates according to that model in the design. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a diabetes trial dataset. Together, the results clarify the gains and losses of discretization in CAR and pave the way for learning impact of discretization to other designs and beyond.

stat.ME