Predicting Forecast Error for the HRRR Using LSTM Neural Networks: A Comparative Study Using New York and Oklahoma State Mesonets

Abstract

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models are trained to predict forecast errors for the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using the New York State Mesonet and Oklahoma State Mesonet near-surface weather observations as ground truth. When evaluated using mean-absolute-error and percent improvement relative to the HRRR, LSTMs predict precipitation error most accurately, providing, on average, a 48% improvement relative to the HRRR forecast, followed by wind error, providing, on average, a 15% improvement, and then temperature error, providing, on average, a 25% improvement. Precipitation errors exhibit an asymmetry, with overforecast precipitation detected more accurately than underforecast, while wind error predictions are consistent across over- and underforecast predictions. Temperature error predictions are relatively accurate but smoother, with respect to variance, than true observations. This paper describes an overview of LSTM performance with the expressed intent of providing forecasters with real-time predictions of forecast error at the point of use within the New York State and Oklahoma State Mesonets. In practice, the predicted errors can be used to adjust deterministic HRRR forecasts at the point of use, identify locations and variables with elevated uncertainty, and provide supplemental guidance for high-impact decision-making. This research demonstrates the potential of LSTM-based machine learning models to provide actionable, location-specific predictions of forecast error for high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, model performance is variable-dependent, and the approach relies on the availability of dense mesonet observations, which may limit applicability in data-sparse regions.