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arXiv · 2512.16857

Identification and efficient estimation of compliance and network causal effects in cluster-randomized trials

Chao Cheng·Georgia Papadogeorgou·Fan Li
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Abstract

Treatment noncompliance is pervasive in infectious disease cluster-randomized trials. Although all individuals within a cluster are assigned the same treatment condition, the treatment uptake status may vary across individuals due to noncompliance. We propose a semiparametric framework to evaluate the individual compliance effect and network assignment effect within principal stratum exhibiting different patterns of noncompliance. The individual compliance effect captures the portion of the treatment effect attributable to changes in treatment receipt, while the network assignment effect reflects the pure impact of treatment assignment and spillover among individuals within the same cluster. Unlike prior efforts which either empirically identify or interval identify these estimands, we characterize new structural assumptions for nonparametric point identification. We then develop semiparametrically efficient estimators that combine data-adaptive machine learning methods with efficient influence functions to enable more robust inference. Additionally, we introduce sensitivity analysis methods to study the impact under assumption violations, and apply the proposed methods to reanalyze a cluster-randomized trial in Kenya that evaluated the impact of school-based mass deworming on disease transmission.

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Chao Cheng, Georgia Papadogeorgou, Fan Li. 2025-12-18. Identification and efficient estimation of compliance and network causal effects in cluster-randomized trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16857

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