Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2512.20699

Comparing next-generation detector configurations for high-redshift gravitational wave sources with neural posterior estimation

Filippo Santoliquido·Jacopo Tissino·Ulyana Dupletsa·Marica Branchesi·Jan Harms
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The coming decade will be crucial for determining the final design and configuration of a global network of next-generation (XG) gravitational-wave detectors, including the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In this study, and for the first time, we assessed the performance of various network configurations using neural posterior estimation (NPE) implemented in Dingo-IS-a method based on normalizing flows and importance sampling that enables fast and accurate inference. We focused on a specific science case involving short-duration, massive and high-redshift binary black hole mergers with detector-frame chirp masses $> 100~\mathrm{M}_\odot$. These systems encompass early-Universe stellar and primordial black holes, as well as intermediate-mass black hole binaries, for which XG observatories are expected to deliver major discoveries. Validation against standard Bayesian inference demonstrates that NPE robustly reproduces complex and disconnected posterior structures across all network configurations. For a network of two misaligned L-shaped ET detectors (2L MisA), the posterior distributions on luminosity distance can become multimodal and degenerate with the sky position, leading to less precise distance estimates compared to the triangular ET configuration. However, the number of sky-location multimodalities is substantially lower than the eight expected with the triangular ET, resulting in improved sky and volume localization. Adding CE to the network further reduces sky-position degeneracies, and the better performance of the 2L MisA configuration over the triangle remains evident.

Explore related subjects

gr-qcastro-ph.HE

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Filippo Santoliquido, Jacopo Tissino, Ulyana Dupletsa, Marica Branchesi, Jan Harms. 2025-12-23. Comparing next-generation detector configurations for high-redshift gravitational wave sources with neural posterior estimation. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361%2F202558828

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗