arXiv subjects

Ulyana Dupletsa

Publications and source records attributed to Ulyana Dupletsa.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing the Impact of Instrumental Requirements on the Scientific Performance of the Einstein Telescope

We investigate the relationship between instrumental requirements and the scientific performance of the Einstein Telescope (ET), a third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) observatory. Different technical design choices result in distinct noise budgets, ultimately shaping the detector's scientific capabilities. To systematically assess and compare their impact, we define a comprehensive set of performance metrics spanning compact binary coalescence (CBC) detection and parameter estimation, as well as other sources, including stochastic GW backgrounds, isolated spinning neutron stars, and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). We build a comparative reference framework that links degradations in specific noise contributions and frequency bands to losses in scientific capabilities. We consider a representative selection of technical parameters, such as coating and suspension temperatures, the filter cavity length in the low-frequency instrument, and the beam size in the high-frequency instrument. We evaluate how sensitivity variations across specific frequency bands affect different scientific objectives. We quantify how the sensitivity below 30 Hz impacts the detectability of massive and/or high-redshift sources and the reconstruction of long-duration CBC signals, affecting early warning and sky localization for binary neutron stars (BNSs). Sensitivity in the 30-450 Hz range governs most CBC parameter-estimation metrics, while high-frequency sensitivity above ~450 Hz predominantly impacts BNS post-merger studies and CCSN detectability, with modest effects on detection rates. Even with the most significant degradations considered, the ET science case remains robust overall. Our results provide a comprehensive benchmark linking scientific objectives to instrumental requirements, particularly important as the final design and infrastructure of 3G observatories are being defined.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Cosmology beyond standard sirens: cross-correlation of gravitational waves and neutral hydrogen intensity mapping

We explore the potential of cross-correlation between gravitational wave (GW) events and neutral hydrogen (HI) intensity mapping surveys to serve as an independent cosmological probe. Focusing on the ET and the SKAO, and assuming that binary black hole mergers and HI emission are biased tracers of the underlying dark matter distribution, we use their angular auto- and cross-correlation spectra to constrain cosmological parameters. We test three different GW detector networks: ET alone, both in its $\Delta$ and 2L configuration, and ET-2L together with Cosmic Explorer. We show that the cross-correlation method, by naturally mitigating tracer-specific systematics, yields robust cosmological bounds, allowing for a sub-percent ($\sim 0.5\%$) precision on the Hubble constant $H_\mathrm{0}$. Furthermore, this approach robustly constrains the cosmic expansion history throughout the post-reionization era of the Universe and, unlike conventional standard sirens, simultaneously probes the large scale distribution of matter perturbations, achieving relative uncertainties of approximately 1.3% on the total matter density $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ and 1.6% on the late-time clustering amplitude $\sigma_8$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Cosmology from Synergies Between SKAO Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observations

Both radio surveys and gravitational wave observations have the potential to probe unprecedented volumes in the Universe with systematics independent of existing cosmological probes. This gives them the potential, especially in combination, to solve some of the outstanding issues in cosmology. Here we show how the use of radio observations as electromagnetic signals tracing large scale structures can be used to provide information on gravitational wave \textit{standard sirens}. By providing a way to link luminosity distance to redshift, this combination can constrain the expansion history of the Universe, and provide information on the Hubble constant ($H_0$). We describe the utility of SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen (\hi) intensity maps, \hi\ galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys compared to and in conjunction with large contemporaneous optical surveys. Such radio tracers provide a unique, large volume and high redshift information for gravitational wave source, capable of probing effectively the expansion history of the Universe $H(z)$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The geometry of lunar gravitational wave detection

The Lunar Gravitational Wave Antenna (LGWA) is a planned gravitational wave detector on the Moon, targeting the deci-Hertz band and expected to deliver breakthrough discoveries across several science cases, including the Moon's interior structure and astrophysics. In this work, we show that adopting a frame comoving with the Solar System barycenter (SSB), but with its origin at a location that minimizes timing uncertainty, reduces the sampling time by an order of magnitude. We present a systematic post-processing procedure to identify the optimal origin within the Solar System for any given signal. We explore alternative timing parametrizations beyond the merger time, and find that they have only a minor impact on parameter uncertainties. Using the stellar-mass black hole binary GW250114 as a case study, we illustrate how these geometrical considerations translate into improved parameter constraints. Two minutes before its merger, the LGWA would have measured its chirp mass to a precision of 0.0002 solar masses (90% symmetric) and constrained its sky position to within 65 square degrees (90% HPD area); these constraints are tighter than those obtained by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detectors, despite a lower signal-to-noise ratio. We connect our results to an analytical approximation proposed by Wen and Chen, which relates the area spanned by the orbital motion of a detector to its efficacy in constraining the sky position of a source. We verify its qualitative validity for compact binary sources with a series of injections, identifying the regimes in which its underlying assumptions break down. Our results demonstrate that inference for long-duration GW signals with the LGWA must be treated as a geometrical problem, in which detector motion, reference-frame choice, and signal evolution jointly determine both parameter constraints and computational efficiency.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Radio sirens: inferring $H_0$ with binary black holes and neutral hydrogen in the era of the Einstein Telescope and the SKA Observatory

A new synergy between gravitational waves (GWs) and the study of the large-scale structure of the Universe is now emerging. Along this line of research, we combine simulated observations of stellar-origin black hole mergers and neutral hydrogen 21 cm line intensity mapping to probe the expansion rate of the Universe through the distance-redshift relation. GW signals from binary black holes provide direct distance information, while neutral hydrogen intensity maps offer a tomographic view of the large-scale structure of the Universe. Using the 3-dimensional density fields of hydrogen as a redshift prior for GW events, we explore a novel dark-sirens-like approach, here termed radio sirens, to measure the late-time expansion history of the Universe. We study the performance of the next-generation GW observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope, to ensure enough statistics and access to high-redshift data. On the other hand, future spectroscopic intensity mapping surveys with the SKA-Mid telescope are expected to trace the underlying dark matter distribution at large scales up to redshift $z\sim 3$. This combined methodology allows us to constrain the Hubble constant to $\sim 8\%$ precision, using around 3,000 GW events with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 150. This corresponds to an improvement of around $90\%$ compared to not considering the information from the neutral hydrogen maps.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Probing Cosmic Expansion and Early Universe with Einstein Telescope

Over the next two decades, gravitational-wave (GW) observations are expected to evolve from a discovery-driven endeavour into a precision tool for astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. Current second-generation ground-based detectors have established the existence of compact-binary mergers and enabled GW multi-messenger astronomy, but they remain limited in sensitivity, redshift reach, frequency coverage, and duty cycle. These limitations prevent them from addressing many fundamental open questions in cosmology. By the 2040s, wide-field electromagnetic surveys will have mapped the luminous Universe with unprecedented depth and accuracy. Nevertheless, key problems including the nature of dark matter, the physical origin of cosmic acceleration, the properties of gravity on cosmological scales, and the physical conditions of the earliest moments after the Big Bang will remain only partially constrained by electromagnetic observations alone. Progress on these fronts requires access to physical processes and epochs that do not emit light. Gravitational waves provide a unique and complementary observational channel: they propagate over cosmological distances largely unaffected by intervening matter, probe extreme astrophysical environments, and respond directly to the geometry of spacetime. In this context, next-generation GW observatories such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) will be transformative for European astronomy. Operating at sensitivities and frequencies beyond existing detectors, ET will observe binary black holes and neutron stars out to previously inaccessible redshifts, enable continuous high signal-to-noise monitoring of compact sources, and detect gravitational-wave backgrounds of astrophysical and cosmological origin. Together with space-based detectors, ET will play a central role in advancing our understanding of cosmic evolution and fundamental physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Comparing next-generation detector configurations for high-redshift gravitational wave sources with neural posterior estimation

The coming decade will be crucial for determining the final design and configuration of a global network of next-generation (XG) gravitational-wave detectors, including the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In this study, and for the first time, we assessed the performance of various network configurations using neural posterior estimation (NPE) implemented in Dingo-IS-a method based on normalizing flows and importance sampling that enables fast and accurate inference. We focused on a specific science case involving short-duration, massive and high-redshift binary black hole mergers with detector-frame chirp masses $> 100~\mathrm{M}_\odot$. These systems encompass early-Universe stellar and primordial black holes, as well as intermediate-mass black hole binaries, for which XG observatories are expected to deliver major discoveries. Validation against standard Bayesian inference demonstrates that NPE robustly reproduces complex and disconnected posterior structures across all network configurations. For a network of two misaligned L-shaped ET detectors (2L MisA), the posterior distributions on luminosity distance can become multimodal and degenerate with the sky position, leading to less precise distance estimates compared to the triangular ET configuration. However, the number of sky-location multimodalities is substantially lower than the eight expected with the triangular ET, resulting in improved sky and volume localization. Adding CE to the network further reduces sky-position degeneracies, and the better performance of the 2L MisA configuration over the triangle remains evident.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Towards an anomaly detection pipeline for gravitational waves at the Einstein Telescope

We present the implementation of an anomaly-detection algorithm based on a deep convolutional autoencoder for the search for gravitational waves (GWs) in time-frequency spectrograms. Our method targets short-duration ($\lesssim 2\,\text{s}$) GW signals, exemplified by mergers of compact objects forming or involving an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH). Such short signals are difficult to distinguish from background noise; yet their brevity makes them well-suited to machine-learning analyses with modest computational requirements. Using the data from the Einstein Telescope Mock Data Challenge as a benchmark, we demonstrate that the approach can successfully flag GW-like transients as anomalies in interferometer data of a single detector, achieving an initial detection efficiency of 23% for injected signals corresponding to IMBH-forming mergers. After introducing weak supervision, the model exhibits excellent generalisation and recovers all injected IMBH-forming mergers, independent of their total mass or signal-to-noise ratio, with a false-alarm rate due to statistical noise fluctuations of approximately 4.5 events per year for a single interferometer operating with a 100% duty cycle. The method also successfully identifies lower-mass mergers leading to the formation of black holes with mass larger than $\simeq 20\,M_\odot$. Our pipeline does not yet classify anomalies, distinguishing between actual GW signals and noise artefacts; however, it highlights any deviation from the learned background noise distribution for further scrutiny. These results demonstrate that anomaly detection offers a powerful, model-independent framework for future GW searches, paving the way toward fully automated and adaptive analysis pipelines.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Fast and accurate parameter estimation of high-redshift sources with the Einstein Telescope

The Einstein Telescope (ET), along with other third-generation gravitational wave (GW) detectors, will be a key instrument for detecting GWs in the coming decades. However, analyzing the data and estimating source parameters will be challenging, especially given the large number of expected detections-on the order of $10^5$ per year-which makes current methods based on stochastic sampling impractical. In this work, we use Dingo-IS to perform neural posterior estimation (NPE) of high-redshift events detectable with ET in its triangular configuration. NPE is a likelihood-free inference technique that leverages normalizing flows to approximate posterior distributions. After training, inference is fast, requiring only a few minutes per source, and accurate, as corrected through importance sampling and validated against standard Bayesian inference methods. To confirm previous findings on the ability to estimate parameters for high-redshift sources with ET, we compare NPE results with predictions from the Fisher information matrix (FIM) approximation. We find that NPE correctly recovers the eight degenerate sky modes induced by the triangular detector geometry, missed by the FIM analysis, resulting in an underestimation of sky localization uncertainties for most sources. FIM also overestimates the uncertainty in luminosity distance by a factor of $\sim 3$ on average when the injected luminosity distance is $d^{\mathrm{inj}}_{\mathrm{L}} > 10^5~$Mpc, further confirming that ET will be particularly well suited for studying the early Universe.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The Science of the Einstein Telescope

Einstein Telescope (ET) is the European project for a gravitational-wave (GW) observatory of third-generation. In this paper we present a comprehensive discussion of its science objectives, providing state-of-the-art predictions for the capabilities of ET in both geometries currently under consideration, a single-site triangular configuration or two L-shaped detectors. We discuss the impact that ET will have on domains as broad and diverse as fundamental physics, cosmology, early Universe, astrophysics of compact objects, physics of matter in extreme conditions, and dynamics of stellar collapse. We discuss how the study of extreme astrophysical events will be enhanced by multi-messenger observations. We highlight the ET synergies with ground-based and space-borne GW observatories, including multi-band investigations of the same sources, improved parameter estimation, and complementary information on astrophysical or cosmological mechanisms obtained combining observations from different frequency bands. We present advancements in waveform modeling dedicated to third-generation observatories, along with open tools developed within the ET Collaboration for assessing the scientific potentials of different detector configurations. We finally discuss the data analysis challenges posed by third-generation observatories, which will enable access to large populations of sources and provide unprecedented precision.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Blinded Mock Data Challenge for Gravitational-Wave Cosmology-I: Assessing the Robustness of Methods Using Binary Black Holes Mass Spectrum

Gravitational Wave (GW) sources are standard sirens that provide an independent way to map the cosmic expansion history by combining with an independent redshift measurement either from an electromagnetic counterpart for a bright siren or using different statistical techniques for dark sirens. In this analysis, we perform the first Blinded Mock Data Challenge (\texttt{Blinded-MDC}) to test the robustness in inferring the value of Hubble constant $H_0$ for a dark siren technique which depends on astrophysical mass distribution of Binary Black Holes (BBHs). We have considered different analysis setups for the \texttt{Blinded-MDC} to test both statistical and systematic uncertainties and demonstrate the capabilities in inferring $H_0$ with detector sensitivity as per the fourth observation run of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA. We find that when the astrophysical population of BBHs matches with the underlying assumption of the model, a cosmological pipeline can recover the injected parameters using the observed mass distribution. However, when the mock mass distribution of the astrophysical population depends slightly on redshift and one is ignorant about it in analyzing the data, it can cause a systematic discrepancy in the inferred value of $H_0$ by about $1.5\sigma$, above the statistical fluctuations due to noise and a limited number of events. In the future, elaborate studies will be required to mitigate systematic uncertainties due to unknown astrophysical complexities. This MDC framework sets the road map for inspecting the precision and accuracy of standard siren cosmology and provides the first insight into the robustness of the population-dependent cosmology inference in a blinded analysis setup.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Model-independent cosmology with joint observations of gravitational waves and $\gamma$-ray bursts

Multi-messenger (MM) observations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers provide a promising approach to trace the distance-redshift relation, crucial for understanding the expansion history of the Universe and, consequently, testing the nature of Dark Energy (DE). While the gravitational wave (GW) signal offers a direct measure of the distance to the source, high-energy observatories can detect the electromagnetic counterpart and drive the optical follow-up providing the redshift of the host galaxy. In this work, we exploit up-to-date catalogs of $\gamma$-ray bursts (GRBs) supposedly coming from BNS mergers observed by the Fermi $\gamma$-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, to construct a large set of mock MM data. We explore how combinations of current and future generations of GW observatories operating under various underlying cosmological models would be able to detect GW signals from these GRBs. We achieve the reconstruction of the GW parameters by means of a novel prior-informed Fisher matrix approach. We then use these mock data to perform an agnostic reconstruction of the DE phenomenology, thanks to a machine learning method based on forward modeling and Gaussian Processes (GP). Our study highlights the paramount importance of observatories capable of detecting GRBs and identifying their redshift. In the best-case scenario, the GP constraints are 1.5 times more precise than those produced by classical parametrizations of the DE evolution. We show that, in combination with forthcoming cosmological surveys, fewer than 40 GW-GRB detections will enable unprecedented precision on $H_\mathrm{0}$ and $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and accurately reconstruct the DE density evolution.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

GWFish: A simulation software to evaluate parameter-estimation capabilities of gravitational-wave detector networks

An important step in the planning of future gravitational-wave (GW) detectors and of the networks they will form is the estimation of their detection and parameter-estimation capabilities, which is the basis of science-case studies. Several future GW detectors have been proposed or are under development, which might also operate and observe in parallel. These detectors include terrestrial, lunar, and space-borne detectors. In this paper, we present GWFish, a new software to simulate GW detector networks and to calculate measurement uncertainties based on the Fisher-matrix approximation. GWFish models the impact of detector motion on PE and makes it possible to analyze multiband scenarios, i.e., observation of a GW signal by different detectors in different frequency bands. We showcase a few examples for the Einstein Telescope (ET) including the sky-localization of binary neutron stars, and ET's capability to measure the polarization of GWs.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Validating Prior-informed Fisher-matrix Analyses against GWTC Data

Fisher-matrix methods are widely used to predict how accurately parameters can be estimated. Being computationally efficient, this approach is prompted by the large number of signals simulated in forecast studies for future gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, for which adequate analysis tools and computational resources are still unavailable to the scientific community. However, approximating the full likelihood function with a Gaussian may lead to inaccuracies, which we investigate in this work. To assess the accuracy of the Fisher approximation, we compare the results of the Fisher code GWFish against real data from the Gravitational Wave Transient Catalogs (GWTCs) provided by the Virgo/LIGO Bayesian analyses. Additionally, we present a sampling algorithm to include priors in GWFish, not only to ensure a fair comparison between GWFish results and the Virgo/LIGO posteriors but also to investigate the role of prior information and to assess the need to include it in standard Fisher analyses. We find that the impact of priors depends mostly on the level of signal-dependent degeneracy of the waveform parameterization, and priors are generally more important when the level of degeneracy is high. Our findings imply that Fisher-matrix methods are a valid tool for ET science-case studies.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Classifying binary black holes from Population III stars with the Einstein Telescope: A machine-learning approach

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) will observe binary black hole (BBH) mergers at redshifts up to $z\sim 100$. However, an unequivocal determination of the origin of high-redshift sources will remain uncertain because of the low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and poor estimate of their luminosity distance. This study proposes a machine-learning approach to infer the origins of high-redshift BBHs. We specifically differentiate those arising from Population III (Pop. III) stars, which probably are the first progenitors of star-born BBH mergers in the Universe, and those originated from Population I-II (Pop. I-II) stars. We considered a wide range of models that encompass the current uncertainties on Pop. III BBH mergers. We then estimated the parameter errors of the detected sources with ET using the Fisher information-matrix formalism, followed by a classification using XGBoost, which is a machine-learning algorithm based on decision trees. For a set of mock observed BBHs, we provide the probability that they belong to the Pop. III class while considering the parameter errors of each source. In our fiducial model, we accurately identify $\gtrsim 10\%$ of the detected BBHs that originate from Pop. III stars with a precision $>90\%$. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning enables us to achieve some pivotal aspects of the ET science case by exploring the origin of individual high-redshift GW observations. We set the basis for further studies, which will integrate additional simulated populations and account for further uncertainties in the population modeling.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The Wide-field Spectroscopic Telescope (WST) Science White Paper

The Wide-field Spectroscopic Telescope (WST) is proposed as a new facility dedicated to the efficient delivery of spectroscopic surveys. This white paper summarises the initial concept as well as the corresponding science cases. WST will feature simultaneous operation of a large field-of-view (3 sq. degree), a high multiplex (20,000) multi-object spectrograph (MOS) and a giant 3x3 sq. arcmin integral field spectrograph (IFS). In scientific capability these requirements place WST far ahead of existing and planned facilities. Given the current investment in deep imaging surveys and noting the diagnostic power of spectroscopy, WST will fill a crucial gap in astronomical capability and work synergistically with future ground and space-based facilities. This white paper shows that WST can address outstanding scientific questions in the areas of cosmology; galaxy assembly, evolution, and enrichment, including our own Milky Way; origin of stars and planets; time domain and multi-messenger astrophysics. WST's uniquely rich dataset will deliver unforeseen discoveries in many of these areas. The WST Science Team (already including more than 500 scientists worldwide) is open to the all astronomical community. To register in the WST Science Team please visit https://www.wstelescope.com/for-scientists/participate

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Phenomenological models of Cosmic Ray transport in Galaxies

When examining the abundance of elements in the placid interstellar medium, a deep hollow between helium and carbon becomes apparent. Notably, the fragile light nuclei Lithium, Beryllium, and Boron (collectively known as LiBeB) are not formed, with the exception of Li7, during the process of Big Bang nucleosynthesis, nor do they arise as byproducts of stellar lifecycles. In contrast to the majority of elements, these species owe their existence to the most energetic particles in the Universe. Cosmic rays, originating in the most powerful Milky Way's particle accelerators, reach the Earth after traversing tangled and lengthy paths spanning millions of years. During their journey, these primary particles undergo transformations through collisions with interstellar matter. This process, known as spallation, alters their composition and introduces secondary light elements in the cosmic-ray beam. In light of this, the relatively large abundance of LiBeB in the cosmic radiation provides remarkable insights into the mechanisms of particle acceleration, as well as the micro-physics of confinement within galactic magnetic fields. These lecture notes are intended to equip readers with basic knowledge necessary for examining the chemical and isotopic composition, as well as the energy spectra, of cosmic rays, finally fostering a more profound comprehension of the complex high-energy astrophysical processes occurring within our Galaxy.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Pre-merger alert to detect the very-high-energy prompt emission from binary neutron-star mergers: Einstein Telescope and Cherenkov Telescope Array synergy

The current generation of very-high-energy $gamma-$ray (VHE; E above 30 GeV) detectors (MAGIC and H.E.S.S.) have recently demonstrated the ability to detect the afterglow emission of GRBs. However, the GRB prompt emission, typically observed in the 10 keV-10 MeV band, has so far remained undetected at higher energies. Here, we investigate the perspectives of multi-messenger observations to detect the prompt emission of short GRBs in VHE. Considering binary neutron star mergers as progenitors of short GRBs, we evaluate the joint detection efficiency of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observing in synergy with the third generation of gravitational wave detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). In particular, we evaluate the expected capabilities to detect and localize gravitational wave events in the inspiral phase and to provide an early warning alert able to drive the VHE search. We compute the amount of possible joint detections by considering several observational strategies, and demonstrate that the sensitivities of CTA make the detection of the VHE emission possible even if it is several orders fainter than the one observed at 10 keV-10 MeV. We discuss the results in terms of possible scenarios of production of VHE photons from binary neutron star mergers by considering GRB prompt and afterglow emissions.

astro-ph.HE↗