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arXiv · 2601.02370

Variance-Aware LLM Annotation for Strategy Research: Sources, Diagnostics, and a Protocol for Reliable Measurement

Arnaldo Camuffo·Alfonso Gambardella·Saeid Kazemi·Jakub Malachowski·Abhinav Pandey
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Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) offer strategy researchers powerful tools for annotating text at scale, but treating LLM-generated labels as deterministic overlooks substantial instability. Grounded in content analysis and generalizability theory, we diagnose five variance sources: construct specification, interface effects, model preferences, output extraction, and system-level aggregation. Empirical demonstrations show that minor design choices-prompt phrasing, model selection-can shift outcomes by 12-85 percentage points. Such variance threatens not only reproducibility but econometric identification: annotation errors correlated with covariates bias parameter estimates regardless of average accuracy. We develop a variance-aware protocol specifying sampling budgets, aggregation rules, and reporting standards, and delineate scope conditions where LLM annotation should not be used. These contributions transform LLM-based annotation from ad hoc practice into auditable measurement infrastructure.

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Arnaldo Camuffo, Alfonso Gambardella, Saeid Kazemi, Jakub Malachowski, Abhinav Pandey. 2025-12-02. Variance-Aware LLM Annotation for Strategy Research: Sources, Diagnostics, and a Protocol for Reliable Measurement. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02370

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