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arXiv · 2601.06408

Scaling of Rainfall Intensity and Frequency with Rising Temperatures

Jun Yin·Bei Gao·Amilcare Porporato
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Abstract

Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying physical mechanism capable of explaining this systematic divergence has remained elusive. Here, we integrate theory and data from a global network of nearly 50,000 rain-gauge stations to unravel the rainfall intensity and frequency response to rising temperatures. We show that the distributions of wet-day rainfall depth exhibit self-similar shapes across diverse geographical regions and time periods. Combined with the temperature response of rainfall frequency, this consistently links mean and extreme precipitation at both local and global scales. We find that the most probable change in rainfall intensity follows Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling with variations shaped by a fundamental hydrological constraint. This behavior reflects a dynamic intensification of updrafts in space and time, which produces localized heavy precipitation events enhancing atmospheric moisture depletion and hydrologic losses through runoff and percolation. The resulting reduction in evaporative fluxes slows the replenishment of atmospheric moisture, giving rise to the observed trade-off between rainfall frequency and intensity. These robust scaling laws for rainfall shifts with temperature are essential for climate projection and adaptation planning.

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Jun Yin, Bei Gao, Amilcare Porporato. 2026-01-10. Scaling of Rainfall Intensity and Frequency with Rising Temperatures. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06408

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