arXiv subjects

Amilcare Porporato

Publications and source records attributed to Amilcare Porporato.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hydrological Constraints on Temperature Sensitivities of Precipitation Frequency and Intensity

To improve understanding of how precipitation frequency and intensity change with warming, we combine the coupled land--atmosphere water balance with a stochastic hydrological model that retains explicit dependence on precipitation frequency and event depth. We find a linear relationship between co-variations of rainfall frequency and intensity, where the slope is a hydrological sensitivity determined by the dryness and storage indices and the intercept is a forcing term associated with changes in moisture convergence, potential evapotranspiration, and effective water-storage capacity. While a given relative change in either rainfall frequency or intensity produces an identical relative change in the mean rate, rainfall intensity additionally influences the runoff coefficient by altering terrestrial water storage relative to rainfall depth. This means frequency and intensity have different impacts on the water cycle, allowing the frequency--intensity slope to depart from -1. Analysis of long-term MOPEX records shows that the forcing term is dominated by moisture convergence and that the frequency--intensity relation becomes steeper from wet to dry regimes, consistent with the slope predicted by the theory. The framework provides a physical interpretation of the observed negative covariation between precipitation frequency and intensity and clarifies the roles of hydrological partitioning and atmospheric moisture supply in their responses to warming.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Small-System Group: Thermodynamics as a Complete Self-Similarity Limit

We revisit the Rayleigh--Riabouchinsky paradox in dimensional analysis by making explicit the bridge between thermodynamics and the mechanical interpretation of temperature. Boltzmann's constant $k_B$ acts as a dimensional unifier, leading to an augmented $Π$-theorem with an additional dimensionless group that encodes system size. In the macroscopic thermodynamic limit this small-system group, $Π_B = k_B/(c\,\ell^3)$ -- the inverse heat capacity of a control volume of size $\ell^3$ in units of $k_B$ -- becomes irrelevant as the response becomes self-similar with respect to it, recovering Rayleigh's formulation. Under suitable conditions, macroscopic limits make the fluctuations of the observables of interest negligible compared to their expected values, hence the state of a system is characterized by a reduced set of parameters. We thus recast thermodynamics as the complete-similarity limit of statistical mechanics with respect to $Π_B$, which also controls thermodynamic fluctuations. We also discuss second-order phase transitions from the viewpoint of incomplete similarity.

physics.gen-ph↗

arXiv2026

Ecohydrological Controls on Moist Convection and Long-Term Rainfall Feedback

To elucidate how land surface state and soil moisture dynamics regulate moist convection, and how convective rainfall subsequently reshapes surface and root-zone hydrology, we develop a stochastic dynamical model that couples soil moisture, vegetation hydraulics, atmospheric boundary layer evolution, and convective available potential energy (CAPE). We show that CAPE depends not only on the free-tropospheric environment but also on soil moisture, through its control of surface fluxes, boundary-layer growth, and the timing of the intersection between the atmospheric boundary layer and the lifting condensation level (LCL). Soil texture and plant properties strongly modulate convective potential during dry-down. Loamy sand favors convection at relatively high soil moisture and maintains the largest CAPE at the time of LCL-ABL crossing across drying conditions. In contrast, sandy soils exhibit high CAPE when wet but lose convective potential rapidly as they dry. As matric potential becomes more negative, convection is increasingly suppressed in finer, loamy clay textures. Plant functional type further shapes dry-down dynamics: water-use-maximizing strategies can enhance dry persistence via stomatal closure during drying, whereas more conservative strategies can sustain convection for longer periods. On longer timescales, stochastic rainfall forcing with CAPE-dependent precipitation intensity produces persistent wet and dry soil moisture regimes, with switching times that depend on soil hydraulic properties, plant physiological traits, and atmospheric conditions.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Scaling of Rainfall Intensity and Frequency with Rising Temperatures

Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying physical mechanism capable of explaining this systematic divergence has remained elusive. Here, we integrate theory and data from a global network of nearly 50,000 rain-gauge stations to unravel the rainfall intensity and frequency response to rising temperatures. We show that the distributions of wet-day rainfall depth exhibit self-similar shapes across diverse geographical regions and time periods. Combined with the temperature response of rainfall frequency, this consistently links mean and extreme precipitation at both local and global scales. We find that the most probable change in rainfall intensity follows Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling with variations shaped by a fundamental hydrological constraint. This behavior reflects a dynamic intensification of updrafts in space and time, which produces localized heavy precipitation events enhancing atmospheric moisture depletion and hydrologic losses through runoff and percolation. The resulting reduction in evaporative fluxes slows the replenishment of atmospheric moisture, giving rise to the observed trade-off between rainfall frequency and intensity. These robust scaling laws for rainfall shifts with temperature are essential for climate projection and adaptation planning.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Thermodynamics and Legendre Duality in Optimal Networks

Optimality principles in nonequilibrium transport networks are linked to a thermodynamic formalism based on generalized transport potentials endowed with Legendre duality and related contact structure. This allows quantifying the distance from non-equilibrium operating points, analogously to thermodynamic availability as well as to shed light on optimality principles in relation to different imposed constraints. Extremizations of generalized dissipation and entropy production appear as special cases that require power-law resistances and -- for entropy production -- also isothermal conditions. Changes in stability of multiple operating points are interpreted as phase transitions based on non-equilibrium equations of state, while cost-based optimization of transport properties reveals connections to the generalized dissipation in the case of power law costs and linear resistance law, but now with typically unstable operating points which give rise to branched optimal transport.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

Stochastic ecohydrological perspective on semi-distributed rainfall-runoff dynamics

Quantifying watershed process variability consistently with climate change and ecohydrological dynamics remains a central challenge in hydrology. Stochastic ecohydrology characterizes hydrologic variability through probability distributions that link climate, hydrology, and ecology. However, these approaches are often limited to small spatial scales (e.g., point or plot level) or focus on specific fluxes (e.g., streamflow), without accounting for the entire water balance at the basin scale. While semi-distributed models account for spatial heterogeneity and upscaled hydrologic fluxes, they lack the analytical simplicity of stochastic ecohydrology or the SCS-CN method and, perhaps more importantly, do not integrate the effects of past random variability in hydroclimatic conditions. This hinders an efficient characterization of hydrological statistics at the watershed scale. To overcome these limitations, we merge stochastic ecohydrology, the spatial upscaling of semi-distributed modeling, and the SCS-CN rainfall-runoff partitioning. The resulting unified model analytically characterizes watershed ecohydrological and hydrological statistics using probability density functions (PDFs) that are functions of climate and watershed attributes -- something unattainable with the Monte Carlo methods of traditional stochastic hydrology. Calibrated across 81 watersheds in Florida and southern Louisiana, the model PDFs precisely capture the long-term average water balance and runoff variance, as well as the runoff quantiles with a median normalized Nash-Sutcliffe (NNSE) efficiency of 0.95. These results also advance the SCS-CN method by providing an analytical PDF for the Curve Number (CN), explicitly linked to climate variables, baseflow, and the long-term water balance partitioning described by the Budyko curve.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Coupling hotspots: distinguishing between positive and negative land-atmosphere interaction

Understanding the complex interactions between land surface and atmosphere is essential to improve weather and climate predictions. Various numerical experiments have suggested that regions of strong coupling strength (hotspots) are located in the transitional climate zones. However, atmospheric processes in these hotspots are found to have different responses to the perturbation of surface properties. Here we establish analytical relationships to identify key role of soil moisture variances in controlling the coupling hotspots. Using the most recent numerical experiments, we find different signs of feedback in two such hotspots, suggesting the coupling can either reinforce or attenuate persistent extreme climates. We further uncover new coupling hotspots in regions where precipitation is highly sensitive to soil moisture perturbation. Our results highlight the importance of both signs and magnitudes of land-atmosphere interactions over extensive regions, where the ecosystems and communities are particularly vulnerable to the extreme climate events.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Thermodynamic Langevin Equations

The physical significance of the stochastic processes associated to the generalized Gibbs ensembles is scrutinized here with special attention to the thermodynamic fluctuations of small systems. The contact with the environment produces an interaction entropy, which controls the distribution of fluctuations and allows writing the generalized Gibbs ensembles for macrostates in potential form. This naturally yields exact nonlinear thermodynamic Langevin equations (TLEs) for such variables, with drift expressed in terms of entropic forces. The analysis of the canonical ensemble for an ideal monoatomic gas and the related TLEs show that introducing currents leads to nonequilibrium heat transfer conditions with interesting bounds on entropy production but with no obvious thermodynamic limit. For a colloidal particle under constant force, the TLEs for macroscopic variables are different from those for the microscopic position, typically used in the so-called stochastic thermodynamics; while TLEs are consistent with the fundamental equation obtained from the Hamiltonian, stochastic thermodynamics requires isothermal conditions and entropy proportional to position.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2023

Self-similarity and vanishing diffusion in fluvial landscapes

Complex topographies exhibit universal properties when fluvial erosion dominates landscape evolution over other geomorphological processes. Similarly, we show that the solutions of a minimalist landscape evolution model display invariant behavior as the impact of soil diffusion diminishes compared to fluvial erosion at the landscape scale, yielding complete self-similarity with respect to a dimensionless channelization index. Approaching its zero limit, soil diffusion becomes confined to a region of vanishing area and large concavity or convexity, corresponding to the locus of the ridge and valley network. We demonstrate these results using 1D analytical solutions and 2D numerical simulations, supported by real-world topographic observations. Our findings on the landscape self-similarity and the localized diffusion resemble the self-similarity of turbulent flows and the role of viscous dissipation. Topographic singularities in the vanishing diffusion limit are suggestive of shock waves and singularities observed in nonlinear complex systems.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2023

Nonequilibrium fluctuations of global warming

While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are characterized by a special symmetry typical of systems out of equilibrium. Their nearly universal properties are linked to the fluctuation theorem and reveal that the progressive warming is accompanied by growing asymmetry of temperature distributions. These statistics allow us to project the global temperature variability in the near future, in line with predictions from climate models, providing valuable information about future extremes.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Helmholtz Thermodynamics Beyond Hamiltonians: Including Walls, Pressure and Heat Flow

For 1D Hamiltonian systems with periodic solutions, Helmholtz formalism provides a tantalizing interpretation of classical thermodynamics, based on time integrals of purely mechanical quantities and without need of statistical description. Here we extend this approach to include heat flux and pressure at the walls, thereby enabling it to describe actual thermodynamic transformations, such as isothermal compressions and expansions. The presence of hard walls, which gives rise to non zero pressure, is justified by means of the virial theorem, while the heat fluxes are introduced as quasi-static limits of suitably thermostatted Hamiltonians. Particular attention is paid to generalizing the minimalist cases of the harmonic oscillator and elastic bouncer, which afford clear physical interpretations. With such extensions, a complete picture of thermodynamics emerges, amenable to cyclic transformations capable of producing mechanical work from heat, like the Carnot cycle.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Salinity-induced limits to Mangrove canopy height and diversity

Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime. However, the role of water stress remains elusive in tidal environments, where saturated soils are prevalent, and salinity can substantially affect the soil water potential. Here, we use global observations of maximum canopy height, species richness, air temperature, and seawater salinity -- a proxy of soil water salt concentration -- to explain the causal link between salinity and Mangrove stature. Our findings suggest that salt stress affects Mangrove height both directly, by reducing primary productivity and increasing the risk of xylem cavitation, and indirectly favoring more salt-tolerant species, narrowing the spectrum of viable traits, and reducing biodiversity. Yet, salt tolerance comes to a price. Highly salt-tolerant mangroves are less productive and generally shorter than more sensitive species, suggesting a causal nexus between salinity, biodiversity, and tree height. As sea-level rise enhances coastal salinization, failure to account for these effects can lead to incorrect estimates of future carbon stocks in Tropical coastal ecosystems and endanger preservation efforts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Global self-similar scaling of terrestrial carbon with aridity

While it is well known that water availability controls vegetation growth and soil microbial activity, how aridity affects ecosystem carbon patterns is not completely understood. Towards a more quantitative assessment of terrestrial carbon stocks, here we uncover a remarkable self-similar behavior of the global carbon stock. Using international survey and remote sensing data, we find that the key statistics (e.g., mean, quantiles, and standard deviation) of carbon stock tend to scale with the hydrological regime (i.e., aridity) via a universal exponent. As a result, when normalized by its averages in the corresponding hydrological regime, the carbon stock distributions collapse onto a single curve. Such a scaling reflects the strong coupling between hydrological cycle and biogeochemical process and enables robust predictions of carbon stocks as a function of aridity only.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Socio-Political Feedback on the Path to Net Zero

Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 must soon approach net-zero to stabilize the global mean temperature. Although several international agreements have advocated for coordinated climate actions, their implementation has remained below expectations. One of the main challenges of international cooperation is the different degrees of socio-political acceptance of decarbonization. Here we interrogate a minimalistic model of the coupled natural-human system representing the impact of such socio-political acceptance on clean energy investments and the path to net-zero emissions. We show that incentives and carbon pricing are essential tools to achieve net-zero before critical CO2 concentrations are reached, and deep international coordination is necessary for a rapid and effective transition. Although a perfect coordination scenario remains unlikely, as investments in clean energy are ultimately limited by myopic economic strategies and a policy system that promotes free-riding, more realistic decentralized cooperation with partial efforts from each actor could still lead to significant emissions cuts.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Increased Asymmetry of Pit-Over-Peak Statistics with Landscape Smoothing

The local extremes (i.e., peaks and pits) of the landscape-elevation field play a critical role in energy, water, and nutrient distribution over the region, but the statistical distributions of these points in relation to landscape advancing towards maturity have received limited research attention. In this work, we first explain how the spatial correlation structure of the elevation field affects the counts and frequency distributions of local extremes. We then analyze local extremes statistics for 8 mountainous landscapes worldwide with diverse hydroclimatic forcings and geologic histories using 24 Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and compare them with complex terrain of the Erythraeum Chaos region on Mars. The results reveal that the spherical covariance structure captures the observed spatial correlation in these cases with the peak frequency distribution agreeing well with the elevation frequency distribution. The ratio of the pit-over-peak (POP) count is linked to the degree to which the pit and peak frequency distributions match, and carries the mark of landscape aging. The relationship between the geomorphic development stage (quantified by the reduced fatness of the slope-distribution tail) and the deviation of POP values from unity in old mountainous landscapes confirms that the evolution towards smoother topographies is atypically accompanied by reduced pit counts typical of organized valley and ridge patterns.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

Blue Holes and Froude Horizons: Circular Shallow Water Profiles for Astrophysical Analogs

Interesting analogies between shallow water dynamics and astrophysical phenomena have offered valuable insight from both the theoretical and experimental point of view. To help organize these efforts, here we analyze systematically the hydrodynamic properties of backwater profiles of the shallow water equations with 2D radial symmetry. In contrast to the more familiar 1D case typical of hydraulics, %already for {even in} isentropic conditions, a solution with minimum-radius horizon for the flow emerges, similar to the black hole and white hole horizons, where the critical conditions of unitary Froude number provide a unidirectional barrier for surface waves. Beyond these time-reversible solutions, a greater variety of cases arises, when allowing for dissipation by turbulent friction and shock waves (i.e., hydraulic jumps) for both convergent and divergent flows. The resulting taxonomy of the base-flow cases may serve as a starting point for a more systematic analysis of higher-order effects linked, e.g., to wave propagation and instabilities, capillarity, variable bed slope, and rotation.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2020

Dengue Seasonality and Non-Monotonic Response to Moisture: A Model-Data Analysis of Sri Lanka Incidence from 2011 to 2016

Dengue fever impacts populations across the tropics. Dengue is caused by a mosquito transmitted flavivirus and its burden is projected to increase under future climate and development scenarios. The transmission process of dengue virus is strongly moderated by hydro-climatic conditions that impact the vector's life cycle and behavior. Here, we study the impact of rainfall seasonality and moisture availability on the monthly distribution of reported dengue cases in Sri Lanka. Through cluster analysis, we find an association between seasonal peaks of rainfall and dengue incidence with a two-month lag. We show that a hydrologically driven epidemiological model (HYSIR), which takes into account hydrologic memory in addition to the nonlinear dynamics of the transmission process, captures the two-month lag between rainfall and dengue cases seasonal peaks. Our analysis reveals a non-monotonic dependence of dengue cases on moisture, whereby an increase of cases with increasing moisture is followed by a reduction for very high levels of water availability. Improvement in prediction of the seasonal peaks in dengue incidence results from a seasonally varying dependence of transmission rate on water availability.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

A minimalist model for co-evolving supply and drainage networks

Numerous complex systems, both natural and artificial, are characterized by the presence of intertwined supply and/or drainage networks. Here we present a minimalist model of such co-evolving networks in a spatially continuous domain, where the obtained networks can be interpreted as a part of either the counter-flowing drainage or co-flowing supply and drainage mechanisms. The model consists of three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations that describe spatial density patterns of input and output materials by modifying a mediating scalar field, on which supply and drainage networks are carved. In the 2-dimensional case, the scalar field can be viewed as the elevation of a hypothetical landscape, of which supply and drainage networks are ridges and valleys, respectively. In the 3-dimensional case, the scalar field serves as the chemical signal strength, in which vascularization of the supply and drainage networks occurs above a critical 'erosion' strength. The steady-state solutions are presented as a function of non-dimensional channelization indices for both materials. The spatial patterns of the emerging networks are classified within the branched and congested extreme regimes, within which the resulting networks are characterized based on the absolute as well as the relative values of two non-dimensional indices.

nlin.AO↗