Development of an early warning method incorporating pre-supernova neutrino light curves

Keita Saito; Minori Eizuka; Zhuojun Hu; Koichi Ichimura; Motoyasu Ikeda; Koji Ishidoshiro; Nanami Kawada; Lucas N. Machado; Lluis Marti-Magro; Kazuha Mikami; Koga Tachibana; Roger A. Wendell

arXiv · 2601.15691

Development of an early warning method incorporating pre-supernova neutrino light curves

Keita Saito·Minori Eizuka·Zhuojun Hu·Koichi Ichimura·Motoyasu Ikeda·Koji Ishidoshiro·Nanami Kawada·Lucas N. Machado·Lluis Marti-Magro·Kazuha Mikami·Koga Tachibana·Roger A. Wendell

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Abstract

Massive stars ($M>8\mathrm{M_\odot}$) emit neutrinos known as pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos through thermal and nuclear interactions for cooling the stellar core during the final stage of stellar evolution. Real-time monitoring of their pre-SN neutrino interaction rate offers a crucial opportunity to issue an early warning to a core-collapse supernova. Some neutrino detectors, including KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande already operate pre-SN alarm systems based on a statistically significant excess of the observed event rate over the expected background. To improve alarm sensitivity, an alarm method which incorporates the time evolution of the observed pre-SN neutrino event rate was proposed in A. Sheshukov et al. (2021). We evaluate the performance of the light-curve likelihood approach under realistic KamLAND and SK operating conditions, including realistic background rates, global false-alarm-rate calibration, and the combined alarm. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the alarm time and distance compared to the conventional rate-only method, while maintaining the same false alarm rate.

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Keita Saito, Minori Eizuka, Zhuojun Hu, Koichi Ichimura, Motoyasu Ikeda, Koji Ishidoshiro, Nanami Kawada, Lucas N. Machado, Lluis Marti-Magro, Kazuha Mikami, Koga Tachibana, Roger A. Wendell. 2026-01-22. Development of an early warning method incorporating pre-supernova neutrino light curves. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.15691

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