Correlation-Based Diagnostics of Social Contagion Dynamics in Multiplex Networks

Joan Hernàndez Tey; Emanuele Cozzo

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arXiv · 2601.22459

Correlation-Based Diagnostics of Social Contagion Dynamics in Multiplex Networks

Joan Hernàndez Tey·Emanuele Cozzo

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Abstract

Multiplex contagion dynamics display localization phenomena in which spreading activity concentrates on a subset of layers, as well as delocalized regimes where layers behave collectively. We investigate how these regimes are encoded in temporal correlations of node activity. By deriving a closed-form mean-field expression for node autocorrelations in a contact-based social contagion multiplex model and validating it through simulations, we show that lag-one autocorrelations act as sensitive indicators of both activation and localization transitions. Our results establish temporal correlations as lightweight, structure-agnostic probes of multiplex spreading dynamics, particularly valuable in partially observable systems.

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Joan Hernàndez Tey, Emanuele Cozzo. 2026-01-30. Correlation-Based Diagnostics of Social Contagion Dynamics in Multiplex Networks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22459

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