arXiv subjects

Emanuele Cozzo

Publications and source records attributed to Emanuele Cozzo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Virality detection and control strategies in rumor models

We study the dynamics and intervention strategies of a rumor using the modified Maki-Thompson model. A key challenge in social networks is distinguishing between natural increases in transmissibility and artificial injections of rumor spreaders, such as through broadcast events or astroturfing. Using stochastic simulations, we compare two scenarios: one with organic growth in transmissibility and another with externally injected spreaders. Although both lead to high autocorrelation, only the organic growth produces oscillatory patterns in autocorrelation at multiple lags, an effect we can analytically explain using the $N$-intertwined mean-field approximation. This distinction offers a practical tool to identify the origin of rumor virality and also infer its transmissibility. Our approach is validated analytically and tested on real-world data from Twitter during the announcement of the Higgs boson discovery. In addition to detection, we also explore control strategies. We show that the average lifetime of a rumor can be manipulated through targeted interventions: placing spreaders at specific locations in the network. Depending on their placement, these interventions can either extend or shorten the lifespan of the rumor.

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arXiv2026

Correlation-Based Diagnostics of Social Contagion Dynamics in Multiplex Networks

Multiplex contagion dynamics display localization phenomena in which spreading activity concentrates on a subset of layers, as well as delocalized regimes where layers behave collectively. We investigate how these regimes are encoded in temporal correlations of node activity. By deriving a closed-form mean-field expression for node autocorrelations in a contact-based social contagion multiplex model and validating it through simulations, we show that lag-one autocorrelations act as sensitive indicators of both activation and localization transitions. Our results establish temporal correlations as lightweight, structure-agnostic probes of multiplex spreading dynamics, particularly valuable in partially observable systems.

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arXiv2025

Eigenvector Localization and Universal Regime Transitions in Multiplex Networks: A Perturbative Approach

We study the transition between layer-localized and delocalized regimes in a general contact-based contagion model on multiplex networks. Using the inverse participation ratio, we characterize how activity shifts from being confined to a single layer to spreading across the entire system. Through a first-order perturbative analysis of the leading eigenvector of the supra-contact probability matrix, we derive an analytical expression for the fictive coupling $p^*$ that marks the crossover between the two regimes. This result reproduces and explains previously observed numerical scalings and extends them to a broad class of contact-based processes beyond the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model. We also obtain an analytical expression for the IPR of the non-dominant layer in the localized regime, confirming its power-law dependence on the coupling with exponent $α=4$. Finally, we study the transition between non-dominant and dominant layers as a function of the intra-layer activity parameter $γ$. Our analytical findings are supported by dynamical simulations that highlight distinct susceptibility patterns across regimes. Altogether, this work provides a unified spectral framework for understanding localization and dominance transitions in multiplex contagion dynamics.

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arXiv2025

Modeling Public Opinion Dynamics: The Spiral of silence in clustered homophilic networks

Public discourse emerges from the interplay between individuals' willingness to voice their opinions and the structural features of the social networks in which they are embedded. In this work we investigate how choice homophily and triadic closure shape the emergence of the spiral of silence, the phenomenon whereby minority views are progressively silenced due to fear of isolation. We advance the state of the art in three ways. First, we integrate a realistic network formation model, where homophily and triadic closure co-evolve, with a mean-field model of opinion expression. Second, we perform a bifurcation analysis of the associated Q-learning dynamics, revealing conditions for hysteresis and path dependence in collective expression. Third, we validate our theoretical predictions through Monte Carlo simulations, which highlight the role of finite-size effects and structural noise. Our results show that moderate triadic closure can foster minority expression by reinforcing local cohesion, whereas excessive closure amplifies asymmetries and entrenches majority dominance. These findings provide new insights into how algorithmic reinforcement of clustering in online platforms can either sustain diversity of opinion or accelerate its suppression.

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arXiv2025

Multifaceted polarisation and information reliability in climate change discussions on social media platforms

Social media platforms like YouTube and Twitter play a key role in disseminating both reliable and unreliable information about climate change. This study analyses the topology of interactions in Twitter and their relation to cross-platform sharing, content discussions and emotional responses. We examined climate change discussions across four topics: the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference, the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate refugees, and Doñana Natural Park. While retweets reinforce in-group cohesion in the form of echo chambers, inter-group exposure is significant through mentions, suggesting that exposure to opposing views intensifies polarisation, rather than mitigates it. Ideological divides feature content differences accompanied by steeper negative sentiments, especially from right-leaning communities prone to share low-reliability information. We identified a topological alignment between platforms, indicating that ideological communities span multiple sites. Our findings show that climate change polarisation is multifaceted, involving ideological divides, structural isolation, and emotional engagement. These results suggest that effective climate policy discussions must address the emotional and identity-driven nature of public discourse and seek strategies to bridge ideological divides.

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arXiv2025

Using Gamified Experiments to Tame Complexity: the case of the Schelling Model of Segregation

This study employs gamified experiments to investigate and refine the Schelling Model of Segregation, a framework that demonstrates how individual preferences can lead to systemic segregation. Using a movement selection algorithm derived from a board game adaptation of the classical Schelling Model, the research examines player strategies aimed at minimizing segregation and maximizing happiness within a controlled environment. Rooted in greedy optimization, the model balances these objectives through a tunable parameter. Empirical data from gameplay is analyzed using Approximate Bayesian Computation, providing insights into player strategies and their alignment with systemic outcomes. The findings highlight the potential of gamification as a tool for engaging with complex social phenomena, enhancing agent-based models, and fostering participatory approaches in the study of emergent behaviors. This dual-layered framework incorporates collective decision-making into micro-macro models, addressing critiques of oversimplification and expanding their utility in educational and policy contexts.

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arXiv2024

Asymmetric Opinion Formation of Emotional Eccitable Agents

The bounded confidence model represents a widely adopted framework for modeling opinion dynamics wherein actors have a continuous-valued opinion and interact and approach their positions in the opinion space only if their opinions are within a specified confidence threshold. Here, we propose a novel framework where the confidence bound is determined by a decreasing function of their emotional arousal, an additional independent variable distinct from the opinion value. Additionally, our framework accounts for agents' ability to broadcast messages, with interactions influencing the timing of each other's message emissions. Our findings underscore the significant role of synchronization in shaping consensus formation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that variable confidence intervals alter the impact of step length when navigating the opinion space, leading to deviations from observations in the traditional Deffuant model.

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arXiv2024

Far-right party influence on polarization dynamics in electoral campaign

Political polarization has attracted increasing attention in recent years, driven by the rise of social media and the global emergence of far-right populist movements. This study investigates the dynamics of structural polarization during electoral campaigns in multi-party systems, with a particular focus on the presence of far-right actors and their influence on polarization patterns and hate speech. Using retweet networks as a measure of structural polarization, we analyze two case studies in Spain: the 2022 Andalusia regional elections, where the far-right party Vox was a significant contender, and the 2019 Barcelona city council elections, where the party had no representation. Our results reveal that the presence of a far-right party intensifies polarization, leading to the formation of two distinct ideological blocks aligned along left-right ideological axes, as observed in Andalusia. In contrast, the Catalan independence movement in Barcelona diluted the alignment of voters, resulting in a more complex, multi-axis polarization landscape. We also explore the relationship between polarization and hate speech, finding an anti-correlation between them in both cases. Our findings underscore the significant role of far-right movements in driving political polarization and the nuanced effects of different political contexts on polarization dynamics.

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arXiv2021

Characterizing Twitter users behaviour during the Spanish Covid-19 first wave

People use Online Social Media to make sense of crisis events. A pandemic crisis like the Covid-19 outbreak is a complex event, involving numerous aspects of the social life on multiple temporal scales. Focusing on the Spanish Twittersphere, we characterized users activity behaviour across the different phases of the Covid-19 first wave. Firstly, we analyzed a sample of timelines of different classes of users from the Spanish Twittersphere in terms of their propensity to produce new information or to amplify information produced by others. Secondly, by performing stepwise segmented regression analysis and Bayesian switchpoint analysis, we looked for a possible behavioral footprint of the crisis in the statistics of users' activity. We observed that generic Spanish Twitter users and journalists experienced an abrupt increment of their tweeting activity between March 9 and March 14, in coincidence with control measures being announced by regional and State level authorities. However, they displayed a stable proportion of retweets before and after the switching point. On the contrary, politicians represented an exception, being the only class of users not experimenting this abrupt change and following a completely endogenous dynamics determined by institutional agenda. On the one hand, they did not increment their overall activity, displaying instead a slight decrease. On the other hand, in times of crisis, politicians tended to strengthen their propensity to amplify information rather than produce it.

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arXiv2019

Layer degradation triggers an abrupt structural transition in multiplex networks

Network robustness is a central point in network science, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. In this paper, we show that layer degradation, understood as the continuous or discrete loss of links' weight, triggers a structural transition revealed by an abrupt change in the algebraic connectivity of the graph. Unlike traditional single layer networks, multiplex networks exist in two phases, one in which the system is protected from link failures in some of its layers and one in which all the system senses the failure happening in one single layer. We also give the exact critical value of the weight of the intra-layer links at which the transition occurs for continuous layer degradation and its relation to the value of the coupling between layers. This relation allows us to reveal the connection between the transition observed under layer degradation and the one observed under the variation of the coupling between layers.

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arXiv2018

A polynomial eigenvalue approach for multiplex networks

We explore the block nature of the matrix representation of multiplex networks, introducing a new formalism to deal with its spectral properties as a function of the inter-layer coupling parameter. This approach allows us to derive interesting results based on an interpretation of the traditional eigenvalue problem. More specifically, we reduce the dimensionality of our matrices but increase the power of the characteristic polynomial, i.e, a polynomial eigenvalue problem. Such an approach may sound counterintuitive at first glance, but it allows us to relate the quadratic problem for a 2-Layer multiplex system with the spectra of the aggregated network and to derive bounds for the spectra, among many other interesting analytical insights. Furthermore, it also permits to directly obtain analytical and numerical insights on the eigenvalue behavior as a function of the coupling between layers. Our study includes the supra-adjacency, supra-Laplacian, and the probability transition matrices, which enable us to put our results under the perspective of structural phases in multiplex networks. We believe that this formalism and the results reported will make it possible to derive new results for multiplex networks in the future.

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arXiv2018

A complex network framework to model cognition: unveiling correlation structures from connectivity

Several approaches to cognition and intelligence research rely on statistics-based models testing, namely factor analysis. In the present work we exploit the emerging dynamical systems perspective putting the focus on the role of the network topology underlying the relationships between cognitive processes. We go through a couple of models of distinct cognitive phenomena and yet find the conditions for them to be mathematically equivalent. We find a non-trivial attractor of the system that corresponds to the exact definition of a well-known network centrality and hence stress the interplay between the dynamics and the underlying network connectivity, showing that both of the two are relevant. The connectivity structure between cognitive processes is not known but yet it is not any. Regardless of the network considered, it is always possible to recover a positive manifold of correlations. However, we show that different network topologies lead to different plausible statistical models concerning correlations structure, ranging from one to multiple factors models and richer correlation structures.

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arXiv2016

Disease Localization in Multilayer Networks

We present a continuous formulation of epidemic spreading on multilayer networks using a tensorial representation, extending the models of monoplex networks to this context. We derive analytical expressions for the epidemic threshold of the SIS and SIR dynamics, as well as upper and lower bounds for the disease prevalence in the steady state for the SIS scenario. Using the quasi-stationary state method we numerically show the existence of disease localization and the emergence of two or more susceptibility peaks, which are characterized analytically and numerically through the inverse participation ratio. Furthermore, when mapping the critical dynamics to an eigenvalue problem, we observe a characteristic transition in the eigenvalue spectra of the supra-contact tensor as a function of the ratio of two spreading rates: if the rate at which the disease spreads within a layer is comparable to the spreading rate across layers, the individual spectra of each layer merge with the coupling between layers. Finally, we verified the barrier effect, i.e., for three-layer configuration, when the layer with the largest eigenvalue is located at the center of the line, it can effectively act as a barrier to the disease. The formalism introduced here provides a unifying mathematical approach to disease contagion in multiplex systems opening new possibilities for the study of spreading processes.

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arXiv2016

Unifying Markov Chain Approach for Disease and Rumor Spreading in Complex Networks

Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most important of these processes due to their practical relevance. However, despite the similarities between them, current models address both spreading dynamics separately. In this paper, we propose a general information spreading model that is based on discrete time Markov chains. The model includes all the transitions that are plausible for both a disease contagion process and rumor propagation. We show that our model not only covers the traditional spreading schemes, but that it also contains some features relevant in social dynamics, such as apathy, forgetting, and lost/recovering of interest. The model is evaluated analytically to obtain the spreading thresholds and the early time dynamical behavior for the contact and reactive processes in several scenarios. Comparison with Monte Carlo simulations shows that the Markov chain formalism is highly accurate while it excels in computational efficiency. We round off our work by showing how the proposed framework can be applied to the study of spreading processes occurring on social networks.

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arXiv2016

Levy random walks on multiplex networks

Random walks constitute a fundamental mechanism for many dynamics taking place on complex networks. Besides, as a more realistic description of our society, multiplex networks have been receiving a growing interest, as well as the dynamical processes that occur on top of them. Here, inspired by one specific model of random walks that seems to be ubiquitous across many scientific fields, the Levy flight, we study a new navigation strategy on top of multiplex networks. Capitalizing on spectral graph and stochastic matrix theories, we derive analytical expressions for the mean first passage time and the average time to reach a node on these networks. Moreover, we also explore the efficiency of Levy random walks, which we found to be very different as compared to the single layer scenario, accounting for the structure and dynamics inherent to the multiplex network. Finally, by comparing with some other important random walk processes defined on multiplex networks, we find that in some region of the parameters, a Levy random walk is the most efficient strategy. Our results give us a deeper understanding of Levy random walks and show the importance of considering the topological structure of multiplex networks when trying to find efficient navigation strategies.

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arXiv2015

Structure of Triadic Relations in Multiplex Networks

Recent advances in the study of networked systems have highlighted that our interconnected world is composed of networks that are coupled to each other through different "layers" that each represent one of many possible subsystems or types of interactions. Nevertheless, it is traditional to aggregate multilayer networks into a single weighted network in order to take advantage of existing tools. This is admittedly convenient, but it is also extremely problematic, as important information can be lost as a result. It is therefore important to develop multilayer generalizations of network concepts. In this paper, we analyze triadic relations and generalize the idea of transitivity to multiplex networks. By focusing on triadic relations, which yield the simplest type of transitivity, we generalize the concept and computation of clustering coefficients to multiplex networks. We show how the layered structure of such networks introduces a new degree of freedom that has a fundamental effect on transitivity. We compute multiplex clustering coefficients for several real multiplex networks and illustrate why one must take great care when generalizing standard network concepts to multiplex networks. We also derive analytical expressions for our clustering coefficients for ensemble averages of networks in a family of random multiplex networks. Our analysis illustrates that social networks have a strong tendency to promote redundancy by closing triads at every layer and that they thereby have a different type of multiplex transitivity from transportation networks, which do not exhibit such a tendency. These insights are invisible if one only studies aggregated networks.

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arXiv2015

On degree-degree correlations in multilayer networks

We propose a generalization of the concept of assortativity based on the tensorial representation of multilayer networks, covering the definitions given in terms of Pearson and Spearman coefficients. Our approach can also be applied to weighted networks and provides information about correlations considering pairs of layers. By analyzing the multilayer representation of the airport transportation network, we show that contrasting results are obtained when the layers are analyzed independently or as an interconnected system. Finally, we study the impact of the level of assortativity and heterogeneity between layers on the spreading of diseases. Our results highlight the need of studying degree-degree correlations on multilayer systems, instead of on aggregated networks.

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arXiv2015

Multilayer networks: metrics and spectral properties

Multilayer networks represent systems in which there are several topological levels each one representing one kind of interaction or interdependency between the systems' elements. These networks have attracted a lot of attention recently because their study allows considering different dynamical modes concurrently. Here, we revise the main concepts and tools developed up to date. Specifically, we focus on several metrics for multilayer network characterization as well as on the spectral properties of the system, which ultimately enable for the dynamical characterization of several critical phenomena. The theoretical framework is also applied for description of real-world multilayer systems.

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