FreqLens: Interpretable Frequency Attribution for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

Time series forecasting models often lack interpretability, limiting their adoption in domains requiring explainable predictions. We propose \textsc{FreqLens}, an interpretable forecasting framework that discovers and attributes predictions to learnable frequency components. \textsc{FreqLens} introduces two key innovations: (1) \emph{learnable frequency discovery} -- frequency bases are parameterized via sigmoid mapping and learned from data with diversity regularization, enabling automatic discovery of dominant periodic patterns without domain knowledge; and (2) \emph{axiomatic frequency attribution} -- a theoretically grounded framework that provably satisfies Completeness, Faithfulness, Null-Frequency, and Symmetry axioms, with per-frequency attributions equivalent to Shapley values. On Traffic and Weather datasets, \textsc{FreqLens} achieves competitive or superior performance while discovering physically meaningful frequencies: all 5 independent runs discover the 24-hour daily cycle ($24.6 \pm 0.1$h, 2.5\% error) and 12-hour half-daily cycle ($11.8 \pm 0.1$h, 1.6\% error) on Traffic, and weekly cycles ($10\times$ longer than the input window) on Weather. These results demonstrate genuine frequency-level knowledge discovery with formal theoretical guarantees on attribution quality.