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arXiv · 2602.18462

Assessing the Reliability of Persona-Conditioned LLMs as Synthetic Survey Respondents

Erika Elizabeth Taday Morocho·Lorenzo Cima·Tiziano Fagni·Marco Avvenuti·Stefano Cresci
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Abstract

Using persona-conditioned LLMs as synthetic survey respondents has become a common practice in computational social science and agent-based simulations. Yet, it remains unclear whether multi-attribute persona prompting improves LLM reliability or instead introduces distortions. Here we contribute to this assessment by leveraging a large dataset of U.S. microdata from the World Values Survey. Concretely, we evaluate two open-weight chat models and a random-guesser baseline across more than 70K respondent-item instances. We find that persona prompting does not yield a clear aggregate improvement in survey alignment and, in many cases, significantly degrades performance. Persona effects are highly heterogeneous as most items exhibit minimal change, while a small subset of questions and underrepresented subgroups experience disproportionate distortions. Our findings highlight a key adverse impact of current persona-based simulation practices: demographic conditioning can redistribute error in ways that undermine subgroup fidelity and risk misleading downstream analyses.

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Erika Elizabeth Taday Morocho, Lorenzo Cima, Tiziano Fagni, Marco Avvenuti, Stefano Cresci. 2026-02-06. Assessing the Reliability of Persona-Conditioned LLMs as Synthetic Survey Respondents. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.18462

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