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arXiv · 2602.20713

Modeling financial transactions via random walks on temporal networks

Carolina E. Mattsson·Claudio Cellerini·Jaume Ojer·Michele Starnini
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Abstract

We model financial transactions as random walks on activity-driven temporal networks. By enforcing fund conservation, our framework analytically derives heavy-tailed distributions for the stationary balances and transaction sizes. Crucially, the latter is driven by variance in the spending propensity of individuals. Calibrated with empirical data from a closed, digital currency community, the model also reproduces observed correlations between inflows and outflows. Our findings provide a path for understanding emergent properties of the circulation of money.

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Carolina E. Mattsson, Claudio Cellerini, Jaume Ojer, Michele Starnini. 2026-02-24. Modeling financial transactions via random walks on temporal networks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20713

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