arXiv subjects

Michele Starnini

Publications and source records attributed to Michele Starnini.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Platform Sorting Drives Ideological Fragmentation in the Social Media Ecosystem

Ideological asymmetries in online political communication are often studied as localized phenomena emerging within communities. Here, we show that fragmentation instead operates at the level of entire platforms, consistent with a process of platform sorting in which users increasingly align with ideologically congruent environments. We analyze political information dynamics across Bluesky, Facebook, Reddit, Truth Social, Twitter/X, and YouTube during the 2020 and 2024 US presidential elections, combining measures of content sharing, engagement allocation, and user-level ideological orientation. Across platforms, ideological fragmentation emerges consistently and persists over time. Platforms exhibit distinct ideological profiles that persist across the two election cycles, ranging from strongly left-leaning to strongly right-leaning environments. Longitudinal analyses further reveal limited ideological variability among persistent user cohorts, indicating that apparent changes within single platforms reflect ecosystem-level sorting rather than convergence toward neutrality. Taken together, our results show that the dynamics of platform sorting is not a transient reaction to political events or moderation interventions, but a persistent structural feature of the social media ecosystem.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Opinion dynamics: Statistical physics and beyond

Opinion dynamics, the study of how individual beliefs and collective public opinion evolve, is a fertile domain for applying statistical physics to complex social phenomena. Like physical systems, societies exhibit macroscopic regularities from localized interactions, leading to outcomes such as consensus or fragmentation. This field has grown significantly, attracting interdisciplinary methods and driven by a surge in large-scale behavioral data. This review covers its rapid progress, bridging the literature dispersion. We begin with essential concepts and definitions, encompassing the nature of opinions, microscopic and macroscopic dynamics. This foundation leads to an overview of empirical research, from lab experiments to large-scale data analysis, which informs and validates models of opinion dynamics. We then present individual-based models, categorized by their macroscopic phenomena (e.g., consensus, polarization, echo chambers) and microscopic mechanisms (e.g., homophily, assimilation). Furthermore, the review covers common analytical and computational tools, including stochastic processes, treatments, simulations, and optimization. Finally, we explore emerging frontiers, such as connecting empirical data to models and using AI agents as testbeds for novel social phenomena. By systematizing terminology and emphasizing analogies with traditional physics, this review aims to consolidate knowledge, provide a robust theoretical foundation, and shape future research in opinion dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications

Multilayer network science has emerged as a central framework for analysing interconnected and interdependent complex systems. Its relevance has grown substantially with the increasing availability of rich, heterogeneous data, which makes it possible to uncover and exploit the inherently multilayered organisation of many real-world networks. In this review, we summarise recent developments in the field. On the theoretical and methodological front, we outline core concepts and survey advances in community detection, dynamical processes, temporal networks, higher-order interactions, and machine-learning-based approaches. On the application side, we discuss progress across diverse domains, including interdependent infrastructures, spreading dynamics, computational social science, economic and financial systems, ecological and climate networks, science-of-science studies, network medicine, and network neuroscience. We conclude with a forward-looking perspective, emphasizing the need for standardised datasets and software, deeper integration of temporal and higher-order structures, and a transition toward genuinely predictive models of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Cross-order induced behaviors in contagion dynamics on higher-order networks

Recent studies have shown that novel collective behaviors emerge in complex systems due to higher-order interactions. However, the way in which the structural correlations of these interactions shape such behaviors remains a significant gap in current research. To address this, we use signatures of higher-order behaviors (HOBs) to identify the underlying dynamical rules, or higher-order mechanisms (HOMs). In this work, we compare several HOB measures derived from information theory. Utilizing a simplicial SIS contagion model, we demonstrate that simpler, computationally efficient measures can serve as robust indicators of HOMs. We uncover the novel phenomenon of cross-order induced behaviors, where behavioral signatures emerge at interaction orders where no direct mechanism is present. Crucially, these cross-order HOBs are not simply induced by structural correlations -- such as nestedness and hyperedge overlap -- but they appear in the neighborhood of any HOM. Among the information-theoretic measures we tested, synergy is the most reliable indicator of the true order where the underlying mechanism is at play. These findings offer new insights into the relationship between the network structure and observed dynamics of higher-order systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Modeling financial transactions via random walks on temporal networks

We model financial transactions as random walks on activity-driven temporal networks. By enforcing fund conservation, our framework analytically derives heavy-tailed distributions for the stationary balances and transaction sizes. Crucially, the latter is driven by variance in the spending propensity of individuals. Calibrated with empirical data from a closed, digital currency community, the model also reproduces observed correlations between inflows and outflows. Our findings provide a path for understanding emergent properties of the circulation of money.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Modeling individual attention dynamics on online social media

In the attention economy, understanding how individuals manage limited attention is critical. We introduce a simple model describing the decay of a user's engagement when facing multiple inputs. We analytically show that individual attention decay is determined by the overall duration of interactions, not their number or user activity. Our model is validated using data from Reddit's Change My View subreddit, where the user's attention dynamics is explicitly traceable. Despite its simplicity, our model offers a crucial microscopic perspective complementing macroscopic studies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Charting multidimensional ideological polarization across demographic groups in the United States

Has ideological polarization actually increased in the last decades, or have voters simply sorted themselves into parties matching their ideology more closely? We present a novel methodology to quantify multidimensional ideological polarization, by embedding the respondents to a wide variety of political, social, and economic topics from the American National Election Studies (ANES) into a two-dimensional ideological space. By identifying several demographic attributes of the ANES respondents, we chart how political and socio-economic groups move through the ideological space in time. We observe that income and especially racial groups align into parties, but their ideological distance has not increased over time. Instead, Democrats and Republicans have become ideologically more distant in the last 30 years: Both parties moved away from the center, at different rates. Furthermore, Democratic voters have become ideologically more heterogeneous after 2010, indicating that partisan sorting has declined in the last decade.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Ideological Fragmentation of the Social Media Ecosystem: From echo chambers to echo platforms

The entertainment-driven nature of social media encourages users to engage with like-minded individuals and consume content aligned with their beliefs, limiting exposure to diverse perspectives. Simultaneously, users migrate between platforms, either due to moderation policies like de-platforming or in search of environments better suited to their preferences. These dynamics drive the specialization of the social media ecosystem, shifting from internal echo chambers to "echo platforms"--entire platforms functioning as ideologically homogeneous niches. To systematically analyze this phenomenon in political discussions, we propose a quantitative approach based on three key dimensions: platform centrality, news consumption, and user base composition. We analyze 117 million posts related to the 2020 US Presidential elections from nine social media platforms--Facebook, Reddit, Twitter, YouTube, BitChute, Gab, Parler, Scored, and Voat. Our findings reveal significant differences among platforms in their centrality within the ecosystem, the reliability of circulated news, and the ideological diversity of their users, highlighting a clear divide between mainstream and alt-tech platforms. The latter occupy a peripheral role, feature a higher prevalence of unreliable content, and exhibit greater ideological uniformity. These results highlight the key dimensions shaping the fragmentation and polarization of the social media landscape.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Social Network Heterogeneity Promotes Depolarization of Multidimensional Correlated Opinions

We propose the multidimensional social compass model, based on two competing key ingredients: DeGroot learning, driven by the social influence exerted across multiple topics, and the preference of individuals to maintain their initial opinions. The interplay between these two mechanisms triggers a phase transition from polarization to consensus, determined by a threshold value of social influence. We analytically study the nature of the depolarization transition and its threshold depending on the number of topics discussed, the possible correlations between initial opinions, the topology of the underlying social networks, and the correlations between the initial opinion distribution and the network's structure. Theoretical predictions are validated by running numerical simulations on both synthetic and real social networks. We rely on several simplifying assumptions to explore different scenarios, such as a mean-field approximation for high dimension, or orthogonal initial orientations. We uncover an upper critical dimension (D_c = 5 topics) for uncorrelated initial opinions, distinguishing between discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. For the simplest D = 2 case and correlated initial opinions, we found that the depolarization threshold can vanish if the underlying connectivity is heterogeneous, as predicted by perturbation theory. Such an effect is due to the presence of hubs, which promote consensus in the population. We test this hypothesis by designing a rewiring algorithm that increases the structural heterogeneity of the underlying network, showing that the depolarization threshold decreases. Finally, we demonstrate that if hubs share the same initial opinion, the depolarization dynamics is significantly hindered.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Modeling adaptive forward-looking behavior in epidemics on networks

Incorporating decision-making dynamics during an outbreak poses a challenge for epidemiology, faced by several modeling approaches siloed by different disciplines. We propose an epi-economic model where high-frequency choices of individuals respond to the infection dynamics over heterogeneous networks. Maintaining a rational forward-looking component to individual choices, agents follow a behavioral rule-of-thumb in the face of limited perceived forecasting precision in a highly uncertain epidemic environment. We describe the resulting equilibrium behavior of the epidemic by analytical expressions depending on the epidemic conditions. We study existence and welfare of equilibrium, identifying a fundamental negative externality. We also sign analytically the effects of the behavioral rule-of-thumb at different phases of the epidemic and characterize some comparative statics. Through numerical simulations, we contrast different information structures: global awareness -- where individuals only know the prevalence of the disease in the population -- with local awareness, where individuals know the prevalence in their neighborhood. We show that agents' behavioral response through forward-looking choice can flatten the epidemic curve, but local awareness, by triggering highly heterogeneous behavioral responses, more effectively curbs the disease compared to global awareness.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Multi-Class and Multi-Task Strategies for Neural Directed Link Prediction

Link Prediction is a foundational task in Graph Representation Learning, supporting applications like link recommendation, knowledge graph completion and graph generation. Graph Neural Networks have shown the most promising results in this domain and are currently the de facto standard approach to learning from graph data. However, a key distinction exists between Undirected and Directed Link Prediction: the former just predicts the existence of an edge, while the latter must also account for edge directionality and bidirectionality. This translates to Directed Link Prediction (DLP) having three sub-tasks, each defined by how training, validation and test sets are structured. Most research on DLP overlooks this trichotomy, focusing solely on the "existence" sub-task, where training and test sets are random, uncorrelated samples of positive and negative directed edges. Even in the works that recognize the aforementioned trichotomy, models fail to perform well across all three sub-tasks. In this study, we experimentally demonstrate that training Neural DLP (NDLP) models only on the existence sub-task, using methods adapted from Neural Undirected Link Prediction, results in parameter configurations that fail to capture directionality and bidirectionality, even after rebalancing edge classes. To address this, we propose three strategies that handle the three tasks simultaneously. Our first strategy, the Multi-Class Framework for Neural Directed Link Prediction (MC-NDLP) maps NDLP to a Multi-Class training objective. The second and third approaches adopt a Multi-Task perspective, either with a Multi-Objective (MO-DLP) or a Scalarized (S-DLP) strategy. Our results show that these methods outperform traditional approaches across multiple datasets and models, achieving equivalent or superior performance in addressing the three DLP sub-tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Competition between simple and complex contagion on temporal networks

Behavioral adoptions are influenced by peers in different ways. While some individuals may change after a single incoming influence, others need multiple cumulated attempts. These two mechanism, known as the simple and the complex contagions, often occur together in social phenomena alongside personal factors determining individual adoptions. Here we aim to identify which of these contagion mechanism dominate a spreading process propagated by time-varying interactions. We consider three types of spreading scenarios: ones pre-dominated by simple or complex contagion, and mixed dynamics where the dominant mechanism changes during the unfolding of the spreading process. We propose different methods to analytically identify the transitions between these three scenarios and compare them with numerical simulations. This work offers new insights into social contagion dynamics on temporal networks, without assuming prior knowledge about individual's contagion mechanism driving their adoption decisions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Political Context of the European Vaccine Debate on Twitter

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, fears grew that making vaccination a political (instead of public health) issue may impact the efficacy of this life-saving intervention, spurring the spread of vaccine-hesitant content. In this study, we examine whether there is a relationship between the political interest of social media users and their exposure to vaccine-hesitant content on Twitter. We focus on 17 European countries using a multilingual, longitudinal dataset of tweets spanning the period before COVID, up to the vaccine roll-out. We find that, in most countries, users' endorsement of vaccine-hesitant content is the highest in the early months of the pandemic, around the time of greatest scientific uncertainty. Further, users who follow politicians from right-wing parties, and those associated with authoritarian or anti-EU stances are more likely to endorse vaccine-hesitant content, whereas those following left-wing politicians, more pro-EU or liberal parties, are less likely. Somewhat surprisingly, politicians did not play an outsized role in the vaccine debates of their countries, receiving a similar number of retweets as other similarly popular users. This systematic, multi-country, longitudinal investigation of the connection of politics with vaccine hesitancy has important implications for public health policy and communication.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Percolation and Topological Properties of Temporal Higher-order Networks

Many complex systems that exhibit temporal non-pairwise interactions can be represented by means of generative higher-order network models. Here, we propose a hidden variables formalism to analytically characterize a general class of higher-order network models We apply our framework to a temporal higher-order activity-driven model, providing analytical expressions for the main topological properties of the time-integrated hypergraphs, depending on the integration time and the activity distributions characterizing the model. Furthermore, we provide analytical estimates for the percolation times of general classes of uncorrelated and correlated hypergraphs. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the percolation time of empirical social interactions is underestimated when their higher-order nature is neglected.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Navigating Multidimensional Ideologies with Reddit's Political Compass: Economic Conflict and Social Affinity

The prevalent perspective in quantitative research on opinion dynamics flattens the landscape of the online political discourse into a traditional left--right dichotomy. While this approach helps simplify the analysis and modeling effort, it also neglects the intrinsic multidimensional richness of ideologies. In this study, we analyze social interactions on Reddit, under the lens of a multi-dimensional ideological framework: the political compass. We examine over 8 million comments posted on the subreddits /r/PoliticalCompass and /r/PoliticalCompassMemes during 2020--2022. By leveraging their self-declarations, we disentangle the ideological dimensions of users into economic (left--right) and social (libertarian--authoritarian) axes. In addition, we characterize users by their demographic attributes (age, gender, and affluence). We find significant homophily for interactions along the social axis of the political compass and demographic attributes. Compared to a null model, interactions among individuals of similar ideology surpass expectations by 6%. In contrast, we uncover a significant heterophily along the economic axis: left/right interactions exceed expectations by 10%. Furthermore, heterophilic interactions are characterized by a higher language toxicity than homophilic interactions, which hints at a conflictual discourse between every opposite ideology. Our results help reconcile apparent contradictions in recent literature, which found a superposition of homophilic and heterophilic interactions in online political discussions. By disentangling such interactions into the economic and social axes we pave the way for a deeper understanding of opinion dynamics on social media.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Modeling Explosive Opinion Depolarization in Interdependent Topics

Understanding the dynamics of opinion depolarization is pivotal to reducing the political divide in our society. We propose an opinion dynamics model, which we name the social compass model, for interdependent topics represented in a polar space, where zealots holding extreme opinions are less prone to change their minds. We analytically show that the phase transition from polarization to consensus, as a function of increasing social influence, is explosive if topics are not correlated. We validate our theoretical framework through extensive numerical simulations and recover explosive depolarization also by using initial opinions from the American National Election Studies, including polarized and interdependent topics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Evidence of Demographic rather than Ideological Segregation in News Discussion on Reddit

We evaluate homophily and heterophily among ideological and demographic groups in a typical opinion formation context: online discussions of current news. We analyze user interactions across five years in the r/news community on Reddit, one of the most visited websites in the United States. Then, we estimate demographic and ideological attributes of these users. Thanks to a comparison with a carefully-crafted network null model, we establish which pairs of attributes foster interactions and which ones inhibit them. Individuals prefer to engage with the opposite ideological side, which contradicts the echo chamber narrative. Instead, demographic groups are homophilic, as individuals tend to interact within their own group - even in an online setting where such attributes are not directly observable. In particular, we observe age and income segregation consistently across years: users tend to avoid interactions when belonging to different groups. These results persist after controlling for the degree of interest by each demographic group in different news topics. Our findings align with the theory that affective polarization - the difficulty in socializing across political boundaries-is more connected with an increasingly divided society, rather than ideological echo chambers on social media. We publicly release our anonymized data set and all the code to reproduce our results: https://github.com/corradomonti/demographic-homophily

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Online conspiracy communities are more resilient to deplatforming

Online social media foster the creation of active communities around shared narratives. Such communities may turn into incubators for conspiracy theories -- some spreading violent messages that could sharpen the debate and potentially harm society. To face these phenomena, most social media platforms implemented moderation policies, ranging from posting warning labels up to deplatforming, i.e., permanently banning users. Assessing the effectiveness of content moderation is crucial for balancing societal safety while preserving the right to free speech. In this paper, we compare the shift in behavior of users affected by the ban of two large communities on Reddit, GreatAwakening and FatPeopleHate, which were dedicated to spreading the QAnon conspiracy and body-shaming individuals, respectively. Following the ban, both communities partially migrated to Voat, an unmoderated Reddit clone. We estimate how many users migrate, finding that users in the conspiracy community are much more likely to leave Reddit altogether and join Voat. Then, we quantify the behavioral shift within Reddit and across Reddit and Voat by matching common users. Few migrating zealots drive the growth of the new GreatAwakening community on Voat, while this effect is absent for FatPeopleHate. Finally, conspiracy users migrating from Reddit tend to recreate their previous social network on Voat. Our findings suggest that banning conspiracy communities hosting violent content should be carefully designed, as these communities may be more resilient to deplatforming.

physics.soc-ph↗