Distinguishing Kilonovae from Binary Neutron Star and Neutron Star-Black Hole Mergers

Abstract

Kilonovae (KNe) are most informative when accompanied by a gravitational-wave signal, which can help identify the source as a binary neutron star (BNS) or a neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger. However, future events will also be discovered serendipitously or through follow-up of other transients, without a confident identification of the progenitor. We ask whether the KN light curve alone can distinguish between these two progenitor channels. Using simulated BNS and NSBH populations together with semi-analytic light curve models, we compare their post-peak evolution across the optical $ugrizy$ bands, and quantify the separation between the two classes in each band with the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). BNS and NSBH KNe populate distinct regions of the post-peak decline distribution, with BNS KNe fading faster in every band. The separation is cleanest in the blue $u$ and $g$ bands $5$ days after peak and in the redder $i$ band $10$ days after peak. Within $5$ days of peak, BNS KNe decline by $\gtrsim 6$ ($\gtrsim 4$) mag in $u$ ($g$) bands, whereas NSBH KNe fade by only $\sim 3$ ($\sim 1$) mag. Over $10$ days in $i$, NSBH KNe decline by $\sim 1$--$2$ mag against $\sim 3$--$6$ mag for BNS. We attribute this to the higher opacity of NSBH ejecta, which lengthens the photon-diffusion time and slows the decline in all bands, while a low opacity blue component drives the rapid early peak and decline of BNS KNe. Although the precise overlap is model-dependent, the qualitative separation persists across variations in the astrophysical population, the NS equation of state, and the controlled variation of ejecta model parameters, establishing the post-peak photometric decline as a viable EM-only diagnostic of whether a KN arose from a BNS or an NSBH merger.