A System-Theoretic Approach to Hawkes Process Identification with Guaranteed Positivity and Stability

Abstract

The Hawkes process models self-exciting event streams, requiring a strictly non-negative and stable stochastic intensity. Standard identification methods enforce these properties using non-negative causal bases, yielding conservative parameter constraints and severely ill-conditioned least-squares Gram matrices at higher model orders. To overcome this, we introduce a system-theoretic identification framework utilizing the sign-indefinite orthonormal Laguerre basis, which guarantees a well-conditioned asymptotic Gram matrix independent of model order. We formulate a constrained least-squares problem enforcing the necessary and sufficient conditions for positivity and stability. By constructing the empirical Gram matrix via a Lyapunov equation and representing the constraints through a sum-of-squares trace equivalence, the proposed estimator is efficiently computed via semidefinite programming.