arXiv subjects

Xinhui Rong

Publications and source records attributed to Xinhui Rong.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A System-Theoretic Approach to Hawkes Process Identification with Guaranteed Positivity and Stability

The Hawkes process models self-exciting event streams, requiring a strictly non-negative and stable stochastic intensity. Standard identification methods enforce these properties using non-negative causal bases, yielding conservative parameter constraints and severely ill-conditioned least-squares Gram matrices at higher model orders. To overcome this, we introduce a system-theoretic identification framework utilizing the sign-indefinite orthonormal Laguerre basis, which guarantees a well-conditioned asymptotic Gram matrix independent of model order. We formulate a constrained least-squares problem enforcing the necessary and sufficient conditions for positivity and stability. By constructing the empirical Gram matrix via a Lyapunov equation and representing the constraints through a sum-of-squares trace equivalence, the proposed estimator is efficiently computed via semidefinite programming.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Hawkes Identification with a Prescribed Causal Basis: Closed-Form Estimators and Asymptotics

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory, identifying its unknown kernels is often hindered by nonlinearity. Approaches using prescribed basis kernels have emerged to enable linear parameterization, yet they typically rely on iterative likelihood methods and lack rigorous analysis under model misspecification. This paper justifies a closed-form Least Squares identification framework for Hawkes processes with prescribed kernels. We guarantee estimator existence via the almost-sure positive definiteness of the empirical Gram matrix and prove convergence to the true parameters under correct specification, or to well-defined pseudo-true parameters under misspecification. Furthermore, we derive explicit Central Limit Theorems for both regimes, providing a complete and interpretable asymptotic theory. We demonstrate these theoretical findings through comparative numerical simulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Asymptotic Classification Error for Heavy-Tailed Renewal Processes

Despite the widespread occurrence of classification problems and the increasing collection of point process data across many disciplines, study of error probability for point process classification only emerged very recently. Here, we consider classification of renewal processes. We obtain asymptotic expressions for the Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities for heavy-tailed renewal processes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Stable Reduced-Rank VAR Identification

The vector autoregression (VAR) has been widely used in system identification, econometrics, natural science, and many other areas. However, when the state dimension becomes large the parameter dimension explodes. So rank reduced modelling is attractive and is well developed. But a fundamental requirement in almost all applications is stability of the fitted model. And this has not been addressed in the rank reduced case. Here, we develop, for the first time, a closed-form formula for an estimator of a rank reduced transition matrix which is guaranteed to be stable. We show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically statistically efficient and illustrate it in comparative simulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Stable State Space SubSpace (S$^5$) Identification

State space subspace algorithms for input-output systems have been widely applied but also have a reasonably well-developedasymptotic theory dealing with consistency. However, guaranteeing the stability of the estimated system matrix is a major issue. Existing stability-guaranteed algorithms are computationally expensive, require several tuning parameters, and scale badly to high state dimensions. Here, we develop a new algorithm that is closed-form and requires no tuning parameters. It is thus computationally cheap and scales easily to high state dimensions. We also prove its consistency under reasonable conditions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Asymptotic Error Rates for Point Process Classification

Point processes are finding growing applications in numerous fields, such as neuroscience, high frequency finance and social media. So classic problems of classification and clustering are of increasing interest. However, analytic study of misclassification error probability in multi-class classification has barely begun. In this paper, we tackle the multi-class likelihood classification problem for point processes and develop, for the first time, both asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the error rate in terms of computable pair-wise affinities. We apply these general results to classifying renewal processes. Under some technical conditions, we show that the bounds have exponential decay and give explicit associated constants. The results are illustrated with a non-trivial simulation.

math.ST↗