Weighing the mass of LHS 3844 b

Abstract

Context: LHS 3844 b (TOI-136 b) is a ultra short-period, Earth-size exoplanet detected by TESS. It is one of the most favourable object for atmospheric characterisation and the study of its surface with the James Webb Space Telescope. However, the dynamical mass of this planet has not been measured yet. Aims: We aim to determine the mass of LHS 3844 b using high-precision radial velocity (RV) measurements and assess the robustness of the inferred signal across different noise and orbital modelling assumptions. Methods: We analyse 25 ESPRESSO RV observations within a fully Bayesian framework. We explore 15 competing RV models that differ in their treatment of correlated stellar variability (through different Gaussian Process kernels) and long-term drifts. Marginal likelihoods are computed for all models and used for Bayesian model comparison and evidence-weighted parameter estimation. Results: The RV planetary signal is robustly detected across all models, and the inferred semi-amplitude remains stable under all tested noise and drift prescriptions. From the evidence-weighted posterior samples we derive a planetary mass of $2.27 \pm 0.23$ M$_\oplus$ and a bulk density of $5.67 \pm 0.65$ gcm$^{-3}$, consistent with a predominantly rocky composition. Model comparison favours GP kernels including periodic or quasi-periodic components associated with stellar rotation and disfavors models with additional long-term drifts. Using interior-structure inference, we find that the core mass fraction is comparable to (or slightly smaller than) Earth's and only trace amounts of water are permitted, supporting a dry, terrestrial interior. We also investigate a tentative additional signal near $\sim 6.9$ days, but Bayesian model comparison does not provide conclusive support for its planetary interpretation.