arXiv subjects

José M. Almenara

Publications and source records attributed to José M. Almenara.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Weighing the mass of LHS 3844 b

Context: LHS 3844 b (TOI-136 b) is a ultra short-period, Earth-size exoplanet detected by TESS. It is one of the most favourable object for atmospheric characterisation and the study of its surface with the James Webb Space Telescope. However, the dynamical mass of this planet has not been measured yet. Aims: We aim to determine the mass of LHS 3844 b using high-precision radial velocity (RV) measurements and assess the robustness of the inferred signal across different noise and orbital modelling assumptions. Methods: We analyse 25 ESPRESSO RV observations within a fully Bayesian framework. We explore 15 competing RV models that differ in their treatment of correlated stellar variability (through different Gaussian Process kernels) and long-term drifts. Marginal likelihoods are computed for all models and used for Bayesian model comparison and evidence-weighted parameter estimation. Results: The RV planetary signal is robustly detected across all models, and the inferred semi-amplitude remains stable under all tested noise and drift prescriptions. From the evidence-weighted posterior samples we derive a planetary mass of $2.27 \pm 0.23$ M$_\oplus$ and a bulk density of $5.67 \pm 0.65$ gcm$^{-3}$, consistent with a predominantly rocky composition. Model comparison favours GP kernels including periodic or quasi-periodic components associated with stellar rotation and disfavors models with additional long-term drifts. Using interior-structure inference, we find that the core mass fraction is comparable to (or slightly smaller than) Earth's and only trace amounts of water are permitted, supporting a dry, terrestrial interior. We also investigate a tentative additional signal near $\sim 6.9$ days, but Bayesian model comparison does not provide conclusive support for its planetary interpretation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

PASTIS: Bayesian extrasolar planet validation. I. General framework, models, and performance

A large fraction of the smallest transiting planet candidates discovered by the Kepler and CoRoT space missions cannot be confirmed by a dynamical measurement of the mass using currently available observing facilities. To establish their planetary nature, the concept of planet validation has been advanced. This technique compares the probability of the planetary hypothesis against that of all reasonably conceivable alternative false-positive (FP) hypotheses. The candidate is considered as validated if the posterior probability of the planetary hypothesis is sufficiently larger than the sum of the probabilities of all FP scenarios. In this paper, we present PASTIS, the Planet Analysis and Small Transit Investigation Software, a tool designed to perform a rigorous model comparison of the hypotheses involved in the problem of planet validation, and to fully exploit the information available in the candidate light curves. PASTIS self-consistently models the transit light curves and follow-up observations. Its object-oriented structure offers a large flexibility for defining the scenarios to be compared. The performance is explored using artificial transit light curves of planets and FPs with a realistic error distribution obtained from a Kepler light curve. We find that data support for the correct hypothesis is strong only when the signal is high enough (transit signal-to-noise ratio above 50 for the planet case) and remains inconclusive otherwise. PLATO shall provide transits with high enough signal-to-noise ratio, but to establish the true nature of the vast majority of Kepler and CoRoT transit candidates additional data or strong reliance on hypotheses priors is needed.

astro-ph.EP↗