Conditional Disclosure as a Coordination Device

Matthew Cashman

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arXiv · 2604.00874

Conditional Disclosure as a Coordination Device

Matthew Cashman

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Abstract

People with controversial views may stay silent rather than speak out alone, though in a large enough group they could speak safely together. A social assurance contract makes disclosure conditional: signed commitments of support stay private until enough people have signed for it to be safe to publish. In contrast, a survey can measure hidden support but cannot protect anyone who acts on it. I derive the contract's exact advantage over speaking openly - and when that advantage disappears: it can turn a few people who would speak alone into a larger coalition.

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Matthew Cashman. 2026-04-01. Conditional Disclosure as a Coordination Device. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.00874

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