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arXiv · 2604.02227

Sensitivity analysis for stopping criteria with application to organ transplantations

Xingyu Ren·Michael C. Fu·Steven I. Marcus
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Abstract

We consider a stopping problem and its application to the decision-making process regarding the optimal timing of organ transplantation for individual patients. At each decision period, the patient state is inspected and a decision is made whether to transplant. If the organ is transplanted, the process terminates; otherwise, the process continues until a transplant happens or the patient dies. Under suitable conditions, we show that there exists a control limit optimal policy. We propose a smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) estimator for the gradient of the total expected discounted reward with respect to the control limit. Moreover, we show that the SPA estimator is asymptotically unbiased.

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Xingyu Ren, Michael C. Fu, Steven I. Marcus. 2026-04-02. Sensitivity analysis for stopping criteria with application to organ transplantations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02227

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