Firstborn Advantage in the Ivory Tower: Mass Science, Expanding Scholarly Families, and the Reshaping of Academic Stratification

Abstract

This paper investigates the mechanisms underlying scientific stratification in the era of transition from elite to mass science. Existing scholarship has largely examined scientific stratification through the Matthew effect framework at the individual, institutional, and lineage levels, but this theoretical lens has grown limited in today's academic landscape, where mass, team-based, and lab-centered research has become the dominant mode of knowledge production. As scientists increasingly share institutional and lineage backgrounds, considerable variation within these units remains unexplained. We propose a new framework that integrates concepts and methodological tools from demography into the social study of science. Drawing on the parallel between biological families and scholarly lineages as fundamental units of reproduction, we adapt the concept of birth order to examine how the sequence of doctoral students within a lineage shapes their career trajectories. Using data on more than one million U.S. doctoral graduates, our analysis shows that, much like in biological families, later students systematically perform worse than earlier ones across multiple dimensions of academic achievement, both short and long term. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we find that later students receive less cognitive stimulation from mature scholars and instead more from peers, and specialize in narrower intellectual domains as senior siblings occupy adjacent territories. These factors constrain their intellectual development as independent scholars. By introducing a demographic framework into the study of science, this paper offers a new perspective on scientific stratification and demonstrates how demographic concepts can be fruitfully extended to analyze broader social and epistemic systems.