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arXiv · 2605.06301

Higher-order interactions in ecology can be hidden in plain sight

Violeta Calleja-Solanas·Santiago Lamata-Otín·Carlos Gómez-Ambrosi·Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes·Sandro Meloni
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Abstract

Higher-order interactions are increasingly recognized as a key component of ecological dynamics. However, we show that higher-order Lotka-Volterra dynamics can, in some scenarios, be accurately reproduced by effective pairwise models fitted to the same abundance time series. Consequently, higher-order interactions cannot, in general, be inferred from time-series data alone. We further identify a fundamental problem of mechanistic identifiability, whereby distinct interaction mechanisms generate nearly indistinguishable dynamics, potentially leading to accurate yet misleading ecological interpretations. Our results highlight the need to complement time-series data with additional ecological information to infer interaction structure reliably.

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Violeta Calleja-Solanas, Santiago Lamata-Otín, Carlos Gómez-Ambrosi, Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes, Sandro Meloni. 2026-05-07. Higher-order interactions in ecology can be hidden in plain sight. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06301

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