Forecasting megaelectron-volt electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt using supervised machine learning algorithms and a timeseries foundation model

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons in the outer Earth's radiation belt, which can pose significant risks to satellites, is essential for risk mitigation and spacecraft operations. We develop a machine-learning-based pipeline for forecasting 1-MeV electron flux variations, focusing first on a 6-hour forecast horizon. Using precipitating electrons measured by POES NOAA-15, near 1-MeV electron flux measured by GOES, solar wind measurements near L1, and geomagnetic activity indices as inputs in 2013-2023, we train algorithms including linear regression, 1-D convolutional and long short-term memory neural networks, and Transformer-Encoder to forecast 1-MeV electron flux in McIlwain's L-shells between 2.8 and 6.0 with 0.1 bin resolution. Particularly, we exploit the timeseries foundation model TimesFM for (1) a zero-shot prediction and (2) a hybrid application involving the ridge regression on the past dynamic covariates combined with the TimesFM inference on the residuals. Using data from January-June 2024 as an out-of-sample test, we find that the hybrid application of TimesFM, named TimesFM+Cov, yields the best results with an average R2 of 0.9 across L-shells, compared to an average R2 under 0.78 for all other models. The R2 of TimesFM+Cov remains above 0.9 for L-shells between 2.8 and 4.7 and drops to 0.77 at L=6.0, indicating improvements of 12% at the lowest L-shell and 48% at the highest L-shell compared to our second-best models. Our work offers an alternative perspective on how a pretrained foundation model could be adapted for space weather forecasting.