Global kilometre-scale tropical cyclone inner-core vector winds from sparse scalar CYGNSS observations

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) inner-core surface wind vectors underpin intensity forecasting and storm-surge prediction, yet direct observations remain scarce: routine aircraft reconnaissance is confined to the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and, even there, samples each storm only episodically. CYGNSS is the only satellite that penetrates heavy precipitation to measure inner-core surface winds, but delivers directionless scalar wind speeds and is assimilated by no operational analysis system. Here we show that the full 10 m vector wind field inside the TC inner core can be reconstructed globally at 1.5 km resolution from sparse CYGNSS scalar observations alone, by generalising score-based diffusion assimilation to a nonlinear observation operator and injecting three TC boundary-layer constraints; we further propose a CYGNSS-intrinsic Observation Coverage Sufficiency (OCS) criterion that flags reliable reconstructions without external references. Applied to 4,955 snapshots of 249 TCs across all six active basins (2020-2022), the reconstructions reduce systematic Vmax bias against IBTrACS best-track by ~79% and ~75% relative to ERA5 and CCMP. Independent Tail Doppler Radar validation (47 storms) yields a wind speed RMSE of 6.9 m/s on the 23 coverage-sufficient cases (7.5 m/s overall); ablation across the full sample shows that the physical constraints cut wind-direction RMSE by 60% without degrading speed accuracy. The framework further supports joint assimilation of heterogeneous observations: adding only 11 dropsonde vectors to CYGNSS for TC FIONA (2022) reduces the cross-eye profile RMSE by 42%, outlining a practical pathway for fusing CYGNSS with SFMR, SAR and scatterometer data. The result is a globally consistent, observation-anchored kilometre-scale description of TC inner-core vector winds across all six active basins, including those without routine aircraft reconnaissance.