Reemergence of the Epidemic Threshold in SIRS Infections on Connected Stars

Abstract

The SIRS process is a continuous-time process for how infections spread on a graph. In this model, each vertex is in one of the following three states: susceptible (to the infection; S), infected (I), or recovered (R) and thus immune to the infection. For each vertex, the transition among these states is exponentially distributed according to the parameters of the process. It was recently shown that recovered vertices effectively stop the infection on stars, that is, the expected survival time of SIRS processes on stars is bounded from above by a polynomial in the number of the vertices, independently of the infection rate of the process. The setting where the process has, so far, been shown to exhibit epidemic behavior, i.e., super-polynomial survival time when the infection rate is above some threshold value, requires the host graph to be an expander. This is in contrast to the shown behavior of the well-studied SIS process, a related model in which vertices never transition to R, and in which even sparsely connected graphs, in particular stars, exhibit epidemic behavior. In this work, we show that expansion of the host graph is not a necessary condition for the SIRS process to result in an epidemic. Our main technical contribution shows that, while the SIRS process does not survive super-polynomially long on a single star, it does so on a network of poly-logarithmic (in the total number of vertices) stars of polynomial size. In addition, we show that such substructures appear in popular complex network models, providing for each a bound on the epidemic threshold. In particular, on hyperbolic random graphs, we compare our threshold for connected stars with the previously known one based on expansion, finding that both of them can be more permissive depending on the graph's power-law exponent and the rate that determines how long immunity lasts.