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arXiv · 2605.29056

Multifractal Complexity of the Chandler Wobble and Its Anomalous Disappearance (2015--2020): A MFDFA Study

Sebastián Jaroszewicz·Nahuel Mendez·Maria P. Beccar-Varela·Maria Cristina Mariani
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Abstract

The Chandler wobble (CW) -- the $\sim$433-day free nutation of Earth's rotation pole -- experienced an anomalous near-disappearance between 2015 and 2020, followed by a re-excitation with an approximately $180^{\circ}$ phase reversal. Using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) applied to more than six decades (1962--2024) of daily IERS EOP C04 polar motion data, this study provides the first multifractal characterisation of the CW and its recent anomaly. Global MFDFA shows that the residual polar motion components and the CW amplitude are genuine multifractal processes with strongly $q$-dependent generalised Hurst exponents and broad singularity spectra. Surrogate-data tests with shuffled and phase-randomised ensembles demonstrate that this multifractality originates from the combined action of long-range temporal correlations and heavy-tailed excitation statistics. A sliding-window analysis reveals a pronounced collapse in long-range persistence and multifractal spectral width of the geometric polar motion signal several years before and during the 2015--2020 amplitude minimum, indicating a genuine dynamical regime change rather than a simple suppression of oscillation amplitude. In contrast, the amplitude- and phase-related variables retain broad multifractal spectra and stable scaling exponents across all epochs, revealing a dynamical decoupling between the geometry of the CW and the multiscale structure of its amplitude and phase fluctuations. These findings highlight the CW amplitude as an exceptionally multifractal integrator of geophysical excitation and suggest that multifractal metrics may provide early-warning indicators of major transitions in Earth rotation dynamics.

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Sebastián Jaroszewicz, Nahuel Mendez, Maria P. Beccar-Varela, Maria Cristina Mariani. 2026-05-27. Multifractal Complexity of the Chandler Wobble and Its Anomalous Disappearance (2015--2020): A MFDFA Study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29056

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