Hyperoptimisation algorithm for the next generation of PDF determinations: ensemble regression with an unbiased selection model

Abstract

We present a new automated procedure for selecting fitting methodologies in the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs), based on a hyperoptimisation algorithm using ensemble regression. Building on the k-folding approach previously employed by the NNPDF collaboration, we introduce a systematic strategy to generate ensembles of hyperparameter configurations and define a new k-folding metric that consistently incorporates full PDF uncertainties. The algorithm outputs an ensemble of statistically equivalent fitting methodologies, which are combined to produce a single PDF set whose uncertainties consistently account for hyperparameter variation. We assess the impact of this approach by comparing results obtained with identical data and theoretical inputs but different fitting methodologies, determined using the previous and the new hyperoptimisation procedures. The new method broadly confirms earlier NNPDF results, while yielding moderately larger uncertainties in regions where data provide limited constraints.