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arXiv · 2606.07939

The atomic structure of work: a micro-action instrument reveals two-pole AI occupational exposure and its decade-scale polar inversion

Shuyao Gao·Minghao Huang
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Abstract

Research on artificial intelligence and work assigns each occupation a single exposure score. We build an instrument to see what those scores average over: a decomposition of 1,961 O*NET work activities into 15,817 atomic micro-actions by a consensus multi-agent LLM pipeline, clustered from text alone into seven semantic classes. Projecting exposure indicators onto these classes reveals two extreme poles, tool-mediated physical execution and planning-and-design, separated by a gap far larger than random partitions of the same data produce (permutation $P < 10^{-4}$; Cliff's $\delta = 0.80$ under our tech-risk index and $0.90$ under GPT-4 task ratings). The poles flank a broad central band that carries most work and is only weakly more compressed than chance. The poles are stable across clustering resolution, sentence encoder (under a common partition), and indicator, yet which pole is most exposed has inverted since 2013: the two extremes swap identity between the Frey-Osborne computerisation era and the LLM era, and at the occupation level an occupation's 2013 automatability declines as its linguistic content rises ($\rho = -0.40$, $n = 618$). We release the instrument and its outputs. The durable object for forecasting is the structure of work itself, not any era's exposure ranking.

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Shuyao Gao, Minghao Huang. 2026-06-06. The atomic structure of work: a micro-action instrument reveals two-pole AI occupational exposure and its decade-scale polar inversion. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07939

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