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arXiv · 2606.14440

Realtime forecasting of solar energetic particle event and proton flux using multi-source solar observations and multi-task deep learning

Yian Yu·Yang Chen·Lulu Zhao·Kathryn Whitman·Ward Manchester·Tamas Gombosi
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Abstract

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, defined by proton flux exceeding 10 pfu in the > 10 MeV channel, pose major risks to spacecraft operations, astronaut safety, and high-latitude aviation. Due to the complexity and rarity of SEP events, reliable operational SEP forecasting remains an important challenge in space weather. Here we present a novel 24-hour-ahead realtime forecasting framework, SEPNET-PRISM, based on a multi-task learning structure and a thoroughly constructed list of features from multiple sources spanning multiple solar cycles, that jointly predicts SEP event occurrence and future proton and soft X-ray fluxes. SEPNET-PRISM extends the earlier-introduced SEPNET-based models by integrating a broader range of solar observations, including active-region magnetic parameters from SHARP and SMARP, solar-flare information, coronal mass ejections, soft X-ray flux, and historical > 10 MeV proton flux. As compared with SEPNET, the inclusion of SMARP data expands the temporal coverage of magnetic-field predictors to earlier solar cycles, while flux-based inputs provide additional precursor information. Evaluation on the CLEAR SEP benchmark dataset shows improved classification performance over the earlier SEPNET-O (operational version of SEPNET) on the newly aligned dataset. The best operational model is obtained when magnetic, radiative, and proton-flux predictors are combined, highlighting the value of expanded historical coverage and complementary precursor information for improving realtime SEP forecasting.

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Yian Yu, Yang Chen, Lulu Zhao, Kathryn Whitman, Ward Manchester, Tamas Gombosi. 2026-06-12. Realtime forecasting of solar energetic particle event and proton flux using multi-source solar observations and multi-task deep learning. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14440

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