arXiv subjects

Ward Manchester

Publications and source records attributed to Ward Manchester.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

SEP-PRISM Data: A multi-source dataset for solar energetic particle forecasting

Solar energetic particle (SEP) event forecasting often involves integrating heterogeneous observations that differ in cadence, temporal coverage, format, and historical availability, posing challenges for reproducible analysis of data-driven approaches. This paper presents SEP-PRISM Data, a curated multi-source dataset designed for 24-hour ahead forecasting of operational SEP events, defined by proton flux exceeding 10 pfu in the GOES > 10 MeV channel. SEP-PRISM Data integrates flare records, active-region magnetic field parameters, coronal mass ejection (CME) catalogue data, GOES soft X-ray flux, and historical proton flux into a common window-based representation spanning 3 February 1986 to 10 September 2025. To improve temporal coverage and cross-source consistency, SHARP and SMARP magnetic products were aligned into a unified SMHARP archive, and CME records from DONKI and CDAW were aligned into a unified CDAWDONKI event set. Predictor variables were summarized over fixed non-overlapping 24-hour historical windows using minimum, mean, and maximum statistics and paired with targets defined over the subsequent 24-hour window, forming a supervised learning dataset. The resulting SEP-PRISM Data contains 14,464 labeled samples, including 650 positive operational SEP cases, and is intended to support reproducible benchmarking, model development, feature analysis, and future studies of space weather forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Realtime forecasting of solar energetic particle event and proton flux using multi-source solar observations and multi-task deep learning

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, defined by proton flux exceeding 10 pfu in the > 10 MeV channel, pose major risks to spacecraft operations, astronaut safety, and high-latitude aviation. Due to the complexity and rarity of SEP events, reliable operational SEP forecasting remains an important challenge in space weather. Here we present a novel 24-hour-ahead realtime forecasting framework, SEPNET-PRISM, based on a multi-task learning structure and a thoroughly constructed list of features from multiple sources spanning multiple solar cycles, that jointly predicts SEP event occurrence and future proton and soft X-ray fluxes. SEPNET-PRISM extends the earlier-introduced SEPNET-based models by integrating a broader range of solar observations, including active-region magnetic parameters from SHARP and SMARP, solar-flare information, coronal mass ejections, soft X-ray flux, and historical > 10 MeV proton flux. As compared with SEPNET, the inclusion of SMARP data expands the temporal coverage of magnetic-field predictors to earlier solar cycles, while flux-based inputs provide additional precursor information. Evaluation on the CLEAR SEP benchmark dataset shows improved classification performance over the earlier SEPNET-O (operational version of SEPNET) on the newly aligned dataset. The best operational model is obtained when magnetic, radiative, and proton-flux predictors are combined, highlighting the value of expanded historical coverage and complementary precursor information for improving realtime SEP forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting with Multi-Task Deep Learning: SEPNET

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events pose severe threats to spacecraft, astronaut safety, and aviation operations. Accurate SEP forecasting remains a critical challenge in space weather research due to their complex origins and highly variable propagation. In this work, we built SEPNET, an innovative multi-task neural network that jointly predicts future solar eruptive events, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and SEPs, incorporating long short-term memory and transformer architectures that capture contextual dependencies. SEPNet is a machine learning framework for SEP prediction that utilizes an extensive set of predictors, including solar flares, CMEs, and space-weather HMI active region patches (SHARP) magnetic field parameters. SEPNET is rigorously evaluated on the SEPVAL SEP dataset (Whitman, 2025b), which is used to evaluate the performance of the current SEP prediction models. The performance of SEPNet is compared with classical machine learning methods and current state-of-the-art pre-eruptive SEP prediction models. The results show that SEPNET, particularly with SHARP parameters, achieves higher detection rates and skill scores while maintaining suitable for real-time space weather alert operations. Although class imbalance in the data leads to relatively high false alarm rates, SEPNET consistently outperforms reference methods and provides timely SEP forecasts, highlighting the capability of deep multi-task learning for next-generation space weather prediction. All data and code are available on GitHub at https://github.com/yuyian/SEP-Prediction.git.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Evidence of Time-Dependent Diffusive Shock Acceleration in the 2022 September 5 Solar Energetic Particle Event

On 2022 September 5, a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event was detected by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO), at heliocentric distances of 0.07 and 0.71 au, respectively. PSP observed an unusual velocity-dispersion signature: particles below $\sim$1 MeV exhibited a normal velocity dispersion, while higher-energy particles displayed an inverse velocity arrival feature, with the most energetic particles arriving later than those at lower energies. The maximum energy increased from about 20-30 MeV upstream to over 60 MeV downstream of the shock. The arrival of SEPs at PSP was significantly delayed relative to the expected onset of the eruption. In contrast, SolO detected a typical large SEP event characterized by a regular velocity dispersion at all energies up to 100 MeV. To understand these features, we simulate particle acceleration and transport from the shock to the observers with our newly developed SEP model - Particle ARizona and MIchigan Solver on Advected Nodes (PARMISAN). Our results reveal that the inverse velocity arrival and delayed particle onset detected by PSP originate from the time-dependent diffusive shock acceleration processes. After shock passage, PSP's magnetic connectivity gradually shifted due to its high velocity near perihelion, detecting high-energy SEPs streaming sunward. Conversely, SolO maintained a stable magnetic connection to the strong shock region where efficient acceleration was achieved. These results underscore the importance of spatial and temporal dependence in SEP acceleration at interplanetary shocks, and provide new insights to understand SEP variations in the inner heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Exploring the Dynamics of CME-Driven Shocks by Comparing Numerical Modeling and Observations

Shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are primary drivers of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, posing significant risks to space technology and astronauts. Concurrently, particles accelerated at these shocks may also propagate back to the Sun, potentially generating gamma-ray emissions through pion decay. We incorporated advanced modeling and multi-messenger observations to explore the role of CME-driven shocks in gamma-ray emissions and SEPs. Motivated by Fermi-LAT long-duration solar flares, we used the AWSoM MHD model to investigate the connection between the shocks and the properties of observed gamma-ray emissions. By coupling the AWSoM with iPATH model, we evaluate the impact of shock evolution complexity near the Sun on SEP intensity and spectra. Our result points to the importance of accurate background coronal and solar wind modeling, as well as detailed observations of CME source regions, in advancing our understanding of CME-driven shocks and the dynamics of associated energetic particles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Solar Imaging Data Analytics: A Selective Overview of Challenges and Opportunities

We give a gentle introduction to solar imaging data, focusing on the challenges and opportunities of data-driven approaches for solar eruptions. The various solar phenomenon prediction problems that might benefit from statistical methods are presented. Available data products and software are described. State-of-the-art solar eruption forecasting models with data-driven approaches are summarized and discussed. Based on the characteristics of the datasets and state-of-the-art approaches, we point out several promising directions to explore from statistical modeling and computational perspectives.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Uncovering Heterogeneity of Solar Flare Mechanism With Mixture Models

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are stored with field-aligned electric currents. With the advent of high-quality data sources such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), recent works on solar flare forecasting have been focusing on data-driven methods. In particular, black box machine learning and deep learning models are increasingly adopted in which underlying data structures are not modeled explicitly. If the active regions indeed follow the same laws of physics, there should be similar patterns shared among them, reflected by the observations. Yet, these black box models currently used in the literature do not explicitly characterize the heterogeneous nature of the solar flare data, within and between active regions. In this paper, we propose two finite mixture models designed to capture the heterogeneous patterns of active regions and their associated solar flare events. With extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed method for both resolving the sample imbalance issue and modeling the heterogeneity for rare energetic solar flare events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Solar Wind with Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events

In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven and self-consistent solar energetic particle model, Solar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate acceleration and transport processes of solar energetic particles. SOFIE model is built upon the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan. In SOFIE, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space is calculated by the Aflv\'en Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM-R) driven by the near-real-time hourly updated Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) solar magnetograms. In the background solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are launched by placing an imbalanced magnetic flux rope on top of the parent active region, using the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low model (EEGGL). The acceleration and transport processes are modeled by the Multiple-Field-Line Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA). In this work, nine solar energetic particle events (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) challenge/campaign events) are modeled. The three modules in SOFIE are validated and evaluated by comparing with observations, including the steady-state background solar wind properties, the white-light image of the CME, and the flux of solar energetic protons, at energies of > 10 MeV.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Tensor Gaussian Process with Contraction for Multi-Channel Imaging Analysis

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al.(2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by introducing an integrative dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Modeling the Solar Wind During Different Phases of the Last Solar Cycle

We describe our first attempt to systematically simulate the solar wind during different phases of the last solar cycle with the Alfv\'en Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. Key to this study is the determination of the optimal values of one of the most important input parameters of the model, the Poynting flux parameter, which prescribes the energy flux passing through the chromospheric boundary of the model in the form of Alfv\'en wave turbulence. It is found that the optimal value of the Poynting flux parameter is correlated with the area of the open magnetic field regions with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.96 and anti-correlated with the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field with the Spearman's correlation coefficient of -0.91. Moreover, the Poynting flux in the open field regions is approximately constant in the last solar cycle, which needs to be validated with observations and can shed light on how Alfv\'en wave turbulence accelerates the solar wind during different phases of the solar cycle. Our results can also be used to set the Poynting flux parameter for real-time solar wind simulations with AWSoM.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

The impact of coronal mass ejections and flares on the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HD189733b

High-energy stellar irradiation can photoevaporate planetary atmospheres, which can be observed in spectroscopic transits of hydrogen lines. For the exoplanet HD189733b, multiple observations in the Ly-$\alpha$ line have shown that atmospheric evaporation is variable, going from undetected to enhanced evaporation in a $1.5$-year interval. Coincidentally or not, when HD189733b was observed to be evaporating, a stellar flare had just occurred 8h prior to the observation. This led to the question of whether this temporal variation in evaporation occurred due to the flare, an unseen associated coronal mass ejection (CME), or even the effect of both simultaneously. In this work, we investigate the impact of flares (radiation), winds, and CMEs (particles) on the atmosphere of HD189733b using 3D radiation hydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric evaporation that self-consistently include stellar photon heating. We study four cases: first- the quiescent phase of the star including stellar wind, second- a flare, third- a CME, and fourth- a flare that is followed by a CME. Compared to the quiescent case, we find that the flare alone increases the evaporation rate by only 25%, while the CME leads to a factor of 4 increase in escape rate. We calculate Ly-$\alpha$ synthetic transits and find that the flare alone cannot explain the observed high blueshifted velocities seen in the Ly-$\alpha$ observation. The CME, however, leads to an increase in the velocity of the escaping atmosphere, enhancing the transit depth at high blueshifted velocities. While the effects of CMEs show a promising potential to explain the blueshifted line feature, our models are not able to fully explain the blueshifted transit depths, indicating that they might require additional physical mechanisms.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Interpreting LSTM Prediction on Solar Flare Eruption with Time-series Clustering

We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model employing data in the form of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters calculated from data in proximity to the magnetic polarity inversion line where the flares originate. We train the the LSTM model for binary classification to provide a prediction score for the probability of M/X class flares to occur in next hour. We then develop a dimension-reduction technique to reduce the dimensions of SHARP parameter (LSTM inputs) and demonstrate the different patterns of SHARP parameters corresponding to the transition from low to high prediction score. Our work shows that a subset of SHARP parameters contain the key signals that strong solar flare eruptions are imminent. The dynamics of these parameters have a highly uniform trajectory for many events whose LSTM prediction scores for M/X class flares transition from very low to very high. The results demonstrate the existence of a few threshold values of SHARP parameters that when surpassed indicate a high probability of the eruption of a strong flare. Our method has distilled the knowledge of solar flare eruption learnt by deep learning model and provides a more interpretable approximation, which provides physical insight to processes driving solar flares.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Solar Flare Intensity Prediction with Machine Learning Models

We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of data (predictors) for each Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Active Region Patch (HARP). The model makes use of (1) the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters as predictors and (2) the exact flare intensities instead of class labels recorded in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) data set, which serves as the source of the response variables. Compared to solar flare classification, the model offers us more detailed information about the exact maximum flux level, i.e. intensity, for each occurrence of a flare. We also consider classification models built on top of the regression model and obtain better results in solar flare classifications. Our results suggest that the most efficient time period for predicting the solar activity is within 24 hours before the prediction time using the SHARP parameters and the LSTM model.

astro-ph.SR↗