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arXiv · 2606.24563

An observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for organized deep convection in an NWP ensemble

Mark R. Muetzelfeldt·Robert S. Plant·Hannah M. Christensen·Zhixiao Zhang·Tim Woollings·Alison Stirling·Warren Tennant·Mitch Moncrieff
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Abstract

A novel stochastic parametrization scheme representing organized convection is described. The effects of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are represented in an observationally constrained manner, by probabilistically triggering an MCS scheme in regions of enhanced environmental total column water vapour. In combination with the probabilistic trigger, patterns with given spatiotemporal scales determine where and when the scheme is active. Our scheme builds on the multiscale coherent structure parametrization (MCSP), which represents the top-heavy heating structure associated with MCSs. The original and new MCSP schemes are tested in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble. Both MCSP schemes improve the spatiotemporal scales of tropical precipitation compared to a control. When the spread-error relationship of tropical precipitation is analysed, the new scheme successfully boosts spread compared to original MCSP, improving the underdispersion of the ensemble seen with the original MCSP.

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Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Robert S. Plant, Hannah M. Christensen, Zhixiao Zhang, Tim Woollings, Alison Stirling, Warren Tennant, Mitch Moncrieff. 2026-06-23. An observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for organized deep convection in an NWP ensemble. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.24563

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