arXiv subjects

Tim Woollings

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Woollings.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for organized deep convection in an NWP ensemble

A novel stochastic parametrization scheme representing organized convection is described. The effects of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are represented in an observationally constrained manner, by probabilistically triggering an MCS scheme in regions of enhanced environmental total column water vapour. In combination with the probabilistic trigger, patterns with given spatiotemporal scales determine where and when the scheme is active. Our scheme builds on the multiscale coherent structure parametrization (MCSP), which represents the top-heavy heating structure associated with MCSs. The original and new MCSP schemes are tested in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble. Both MCSP schemes improve the spatiotemporal scales of tropical precipitation compared to a control. When the spread-error relationship of tropical precipitation is analysed, the new scheme successfully boosts spread compared to original MCSP, improving the underdispersion of the ensemble seen with the original MCSP.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Moisture Budgets and Circulation Analogs: Diagnosing Dynamic and Thermodynamic Precipitation Change

Precipitation trends can arise from both dynamic factors (changes in atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic factors (changes in atmospheric moisture content). Disentangling these contributions can aid in understanding regional climate change and improving projections. We compare two approaches which separate dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to precipitation trends over Central Chile: a moisture budget analysis and constructed circulation analogs. Both methods are applied to fields from the CESM2 Large Ensemble as well as two reanalyses. We analyze the methodological differences that lead to distinct results in each approach and evaluate their respective capabilities in capturing dynamic, thermodynamic and coupled trends. We find that the estimated dynamic trends from both methods often differ substantially for individual ensemble members, although the ensemble mean generally agrees in sign but not in magnitude. Finally, we apply circulation analogs to moisture budget terms to refine estimates of historical and future precipitation change in Central Chile. This combined framework reduces dynamic contamination of thermodynamic trends and yields projections of thermodynamic precipitation change that are weaker than that suggested by either method alone.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Disentangling North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere coupling using circulation analogues

The coupled nature of the ocean-atmosphere system frequently makes understanding the direction of causality difficult in ocean-atmosphere interactions. This study presents a method to decompose turbulent heat fluxes into a component which is directly forced by atmospheric circulation, and a residual which is assumed to be primarily `ocean-forced'. This method is applied to the North Atlantic in a 500-year pre-industrial control run using the Met Office's HadGEM3-GC3.1-MM model. The method identifies residual heat flux modes largely associated with variations in ocean circulation and shows that these force equivalent barotropic circulation anomalies in the atmosphere. The first of these modes is characterised by the ocean warming the atmosphere along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current and the second by a dipole of cooling in the western subtropical North Atantic and warming in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations confirms that these heat flux patterns are indeed forcing the atmospheric circulation changes seen in the pre-industrial control run. It is found that the Gulf Stream plays a critical role in the atmospheric circulation response to decadal ocean variability in this model. More generally, the heat flux dynamical decomposition method provides a useful way to establish causality in ocean-atmosphere interactions which could easily be applied to other ocean basins and to either models or reanalysis datasets.

physics.ao-ph↗