Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2607.08445

Signal-to-Noise Ratio Contours for LISA

Kai Schmitz·Joseph D. Romano
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will search for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at millihertz frequencies, from both astrophysical and cosmological sources, and thereby open a new chapter in GW astronomy. In the literature, LISA's sensitivity to prospective GW background (GWB) signals is often quantified in terms of an expected signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) assuming perfect knowledge of the detector noise. The commonly employed expression for the SNR is, however, valid only in the limit of a weak GWB signal, which renders a large number of SNR values reported in the literature inaccurate. In this paper, we address this issue by deriving for the first time an expression for the expected optimal SNR of a LISA auto-correlation measurement that is valid at arbitrary signal strength. Based on our generalized expression, we conclude that LISA data worth an observing time of T_obs across the frequency band from f_min to f_max will never yield an SNR in excess of SNR_max = sqrt(T_obs(f_max-f_min)), which evaluates to SNR_max <~ 10^4 for typical mission parameters. We illustrate our findings in terms of generalized power-law-integrated (PLI) sensitivity curves at different SNR levels, i.e., LISA SNR contour lines in plots of the GW energy-density power spectrum. In contrast to earlier work on PLI sensitivity curves, we notably find that the LISA SNR contours are bounded from above, approximately by the LISA strain noise curve multiplied by a factor of Euler's number e. For GWB signals not much weaker than this range, the expected SNR for a LISA auto-correlation measurement needs to be evaluated based on our new expression. Our numerical results for the LISA SNR contours are available on Zenodo [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21275527].

Explore related subjects

gr-qcastro-ph.IMhep-ph

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Kai Schmitz, Joseph D. Romano. 2026-07-09. Signal-to-Noise Ratio Contours for LISA. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08445

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗