Interventional Grounding Audits: Black-Box Premise-Dependency Tests for LLM Chain-of-Thought via Predicate Substitution

Hironao Nakamura

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arXiv · 2607.13069

Interventional Grounding Audits: Black-Box Premise-Dependency Tests for LLM Chain-of-Thought via Predicate Substitution

Hironao Nakamura

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Abstract

Large language models produce chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning that appears logically sound yet may not genuinely depend on its stated premises. We introduce interventional grounding audits, a black-box, step-level test of premise dependency: we intervene on a single premise by substituting its target predicate with a fresh symbol, re-run the model, and check whether each reasoning step's normalized conclusion (canonical predicate form) changes. We evaluate on ProntoQA, a synthetic multi-hop deductive reasoning benchmark with gold proof trees, where step-level premise dependencies are known. Applied to 50 ProntoQA problems with GPT-4o, our method achieves F1 = 0.806 on detecting proof-tree dependencies (F1 = 0.885 on predicate-determining dependencies; Recall = 100%), significantly outperforming a self-consistency baseline (F1 = 0.343; 95% bootstrap CIs non-overlapping). We further identify that 66% of correctly-solved problems contain at least one aligned step insensitive to a direct proof-tree dependency under consistent substitution -- all involving entity-introduction premises, a documented blind spot of the consistent-substitution evaluator -- a "right answer, wrong reasoning" signal invisible to passive methods. All audit certificates, raw outputs, and reproduction scripts are available in a public GitHub repository, and we discuss scope limits beyond formal, parsable benchmarks.

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BibTeX RIS

Hironao Nakamura. 2026-07-11. Interventional Grounding Audits: Black-Box Premise-Dependency Tests for LLM Chain-of-Thought via Predicate Substitution. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13069

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