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arXiv · 2607.18140

A Mathematical Model of Dengue Transmission Incorporating Hospital Capacity and Threshold-Based Fogging Interventions

Dipo Aldila·Joseph Páez Chávez·Aytül Gökçe·Thomas Götz·Burcu Gürbüz
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Abstract

Dengue remains a major public health challenge in tropical regions, and recurring outbreaks suggest that current intervention strategies are not yet fully effective. Existing mathematical models typically assume unlimited hospital capacity and continuously applied fogging, neglecting practical constraints that strongly influence disease control. We develop a non-smooth ordinary differential equation model of dengue transmission that incorporates finite hospital capacity and a threshold-triggered fogging strategy activated when reported infections exceed a prescribed fraction of the available capacity. The model exhibits three epidemiologically relevant operating regimes, reflecting changes in hospitalization and vector-control policies as the epidemic progresses. We establish the existence and local stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Numerical continuation confirms the analytical results and reveals boundary-equilibrium bifurcations at the switching thresholds, a Hopf bifurcation after hospital capacity is exceeded leading to sustained oscillatory outbreaks, and a fold bifurcation near the epidemic threshold that generates additional unstable equilibria. We further investigate periodic solutions with respect to the fogging rate and activation threshold, identifying locally optimal intervention regimes that reduce epidemic peaks while avoiding unnecessarily intensive control efforts. The results demonstrate that hospital capacity, reactive fogging, and intervention thresholds fundamentally shape dengue dynamics and provide quantitative insights for designing effective state-dependent control strategies under limited healthcare resources.

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Dipo Aldila, Joseph Páez Chávez, Aytül Gökçe, Thomas Götz, Burcu Gürbüz. 2026-07-20. A Mathematical Model of Dengue Transmission Incorporating Hospital Capacity and Threshold-Based Fogging Interventions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18140

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