arXiv subjects

Burcu Gürbüz

Publications and source records attributed to Burcu Gürbüz.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Mathematical Model of Dengue Transmission Incorporating Hospital Capacity and Threshold-Based Fogging Interventions

Dengue remains a major public health challenge in tropical regions, and recurring outbreaks suggest that current intervention strategies are not yet fully effective. Existing mathematical models typically assume unlimited hospital capacity and continuously applied fogging, neglecting practical constraints that strongly influence disease control. We develop a non-smooth ordinary differential equation model of dengue transmission that incorporates finite hospital capacity and a threshold-triggered fogging strategy activated when reported infections exceed a prescribed fraction of the available capacity. The model exhibits three epidemiologically relevant operating regimes, reflecting changes in hospitalization and vector-control policies as the epidemic progresses. We establish the existence and local stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Numerical continuation confirms the analytical results and reveals boundary-equilibrium bifurcations at the switching thresholds, a Hopf bifurcation after hospital capacity is exceeded leading to sustained oscillatory outbreaks, and a fold bifurcation near the epidemic threshold that generates additional unstable equilibria. We further investigate periodic solutions with respect to the fogging rate and activation threshold, identifying locally optimal intervention regimes that reduce epidemic peaks while avoiding unnecessarily intensive control efforts. The results demonstrate that hospital capacity, reactive fogging, and intervention thresholds fundamentally shape dengue dynamics and provide quantitative insights for designing effective state-dependent control strategies under limited healthcare resources.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Global stability and uniform persistence in an epidemic model with saturating fomite-mediated transmission

We analyse the global dynamics of a Susceptible--Vaccinated--Exposed--Infected--Recovered (SVEIR) epidemic model with demographic turnover, imperfect vaccination, and two transmission routes: direct host-to-host contagion and indirect transmission via contaminated fomites. Indirect transmission is described through an environmental pathogen concentration and a Holling-type dose--response function, accounting for nonlinear incidence at high contamination levels. Threshold conditions separating disease elimination from long-term persistence are expressed in terms of the control reproduction number $\mathcal R_c$, and the classical threshold condition $\mathcal R_c<1$ is derived for the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. For the Holling type~II case, we further obtain an explicit closed-form sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium by applying the Kamgang--Sallet approach for monotone systems with a Metzler infected subsystem. In the absence of vaccination, this criterion recovers the sharp threshold $\mathcal R_0\le 1$ for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, where $\mathcal R_0$ denotes the basic reproduction number. Conversely, when $\mathcal R_c>1$, we establish uniform persistence of the infection and the existence of at least one endemic equilibrium using persistence theory for semiflows and an acyclicity analysis of the boundary dynamics. Overall, our results quantify the combined impact of vaccination and saturating fomite-mediated transmission on the global behaviour of the model.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Modeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality

In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit vector co-infection. The human population is divided into compartments for primary and secondary infections, while the mosquito population includes single- and co-infected classes. ADE is modeled through distinct primary ($α$) and secondary ($σ$) transmission rates. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium for $R_0 < 1$. Analytical results show that one-strain endemic equilibria lose stability under ADE conditions ($σ> α$), allowing invasion by a heterologous strain. Employing center-manifold theory and numerical continuation (COCO), we demonstrate the occurrence of backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations confirm transitions among disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes as key parameters vary. The model highlights how ADE, waning cross-immunity, and vector co-infection interact to generate complex dengue dynamics and provides insights useful for designing effective control and vaccination strategies in dengue-endemic regions.

math.DS↗

arXiv2025

Dynamical behavior and bifurcation analysis for a theoretical model of dengue fever transmission with incubation period and delayed recovery

As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae. aegypti). These mosquitoes can transmit other viruses, including Zika and Chikungunya. In this research, a mathematical model is formulated to reflect different time delays considered in both extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods, as well as in the recovery periods of infectious individuals. Preliminary results for the non-delayed model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, non-dimensionalization and equalibria analysis are presented. The threshold parameter (reproduction number) of the model is obtained via next generation matrix schemes. The stability analysis of the model revealed that various dynamical behaviour can be observed depending on delay parameters, where in particular the effect of delay in the recovery time of infectious individuals may lead to substantial changes in the dynamics. The ideas presented in this paper can be applied to other infectious diseases, providing qualitative evaluations for understanding time delays influencing the transmission dynamics.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

A comprehensive numerical investigation of a coupled mathematical model of neuronal excitability

Being an example for a relaxation oscillator, the FitzHugh-Nagumo model has been widely employed for describing the generation of action potentials. In this paper, we begin with a biological interpretation of what the subsequent mathematical and numerical analyses of the model entail. The interaction between action potential variable and recovery variable is then revisited through linear stability analysis around the equilibrium and local stability conditions are determined. Analytical results are compared with numerical simulations. The study aims to show an alternative approach regarding Taylor polynomials and constructed difference scheme which play a key role in the numerical approach for the problem. The robustness of the schemes is investigated in terms of convergency and stability of the techniques. This systematic approach by the combination of numerical techniques provides beneficial results which are uniquely designed for the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. We describe the matrix representations with the collocation points. Then the method is applied in order to acquire a system of nonlinear algebraic equations. On the other hand, we apply finite difference scheme and its stability is also performed. Moreover, the numerical simulations are shown. Consequently, a comprehensive investigation of the related model is examined.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

An SIRS-model considering waning efficiency and periodic re-vaccination

In this paper, we extend the classical SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model from mathematical epidemiology by incorporating a vaccinated compartment, V, accounting for an imperfect vaccine with waning efficacy over time. The SIRSV-model divides the population into four compartments and introduces periodic re-vaccination for waning immunity. The efficiency of the vaccine is assumed to decay with the time passed since the vaccination. Periodic re-vaccinations are applied to the population. We develop a partial differential equation (PDE) model for the continuous vaccination time and a coupled ordinary differential equation (ODE) system when discretizing the vaccination period. We analyze the equilibria of the ODE model and investigate the linear stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Furthermore, we explore an optimization framework where vaccination rate, re-vaccination time, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are control variables to minimize infection levels. The optimization objective is defined using different norm-based measures of infected individuals. A numerical analysis of the model's dynamic behavior under varying control parameters is conducted using path-following methods. The analysis focuses on the impacts of vaccination strategies and contact limitation measures. Bifurcation analysis reveals complex behaviors, including bistability, fold bifurcations, forward and backward bifurcations, highlighting the need for combined vaccination and contact control strategies to manage disease spread effectively.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Dynamics of a mathematical model of virus spreading incorporating the effect of a vaccine

The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread interest in epidemiological models. In this context the role of vaccination in influencing the spreading of the disease is of particular interest. There has also been a lot of debate on the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as the disinfection of surfaces. We investigate a mathematical model for the spread of a disease which includes both imperfect vaccination and infection due to virus in the environment. The latter is studied with the help of two phenomenological models for the force of infection. In one of these models we find that backward bifurcations take place so that for some parameter values an endemic steady state exists although the basic reproduction ratio $R_0$ is less than one. We also prove that in that case there can exist more than one endemic steady state. In the other model all generic transcritical bifurcations are forward bifurcations so that these effects cannot occur. Thus we see that the occurrence of backward bifurcations, which can be important for disease control strategies, is dependent on the details of the function describing the force of infection. By means of simulations the predictions of this model are compared with data for COVID-19 from Turkey. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Analysis of a model of the Calvin cycle with diffusion of ATP

The dynamics of a mathematical model of the Calvin cycle, which is part of photosynthesis, is analysed. Since diffusion of ATP is included in the model a system of reaction-diffusion equations is obtained. It is proved that for a suitable choice of parameters there exist spatially inhomogeneous positive steady states, in fact infinitely many of them. It is also shown that all positive steady states, homogeneous and inhomogeneous, are nonlinearly unstable. The only smooth steady state which could be stable is a trivial one, where all concentrations except that of ATP are zero. It is found that in the spatially homogeneous case there are steady states with the property that the linearization about that state has eigenvalues which are not real, indicating the presence of oscillations. Numerical simulations exhibit solutions for which the concentrations are not monotone functions of time.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2021

Implementation of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) in Testing the Ease and Usability of E-wallet Applications

Digital payment innovation is currently increasingly needed by the community, especially in making non-cash payment transactions. The purpose of this research is to know and measure the ease and usefulness of e-wallet digital wallet services, especially in the GoPay application. The population in this study are users of the Go-Pay service on the GO-JEK platform. The sample of this study consisted of 124 respondents from distributing questionnaires in Depok, West Java using a modified Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) based on existing references. The data processing in this research uses Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) analysis. The results show that based on the gap analysis, it is found that in general Go-Pay users are not satisfied with the current service quality. Based on the IPA analysis, the priority scale of E-Wallet Go-Pay quality improvement can be mapped, where quadrant I is the highest priority scale according to the user's perspective: [1], [4], [5], and [6]. These three items must be upgraded immediately by the manager to meet user expectations. Areas that become the achievements or advantages of the GoPay E-Wallet that must be maintained are in quadrant II, namely: [2] and [3]. From this explanation, it can be concluded that in general the E-Wallet GoPay Service must be improved to improve its service performance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

A computational approximation for the solution of retarded functional differential equations and their applications to science and engineering

Delay differential equations are of great importance in science, engineering, medicine and biological models. These type of models include time delay phenomena which is helpful for characterising the real-world applications in machine learning, mechanics, economics, electrodynamics and so on. Besides, special classes of functional differential equations have been investigated in many researches. In this study, a numerical investigation of retarded type of these models together with initial conditions are introduced. The technique is based on a polynomial approach along with collocation points which maintains an approximated solutions to the problem. Besides, an error analysis of the approximate solutions is given. Accuracy of the method is shown by the results. Consequently, illustrative examples are considered and detailed analysis of the problem is acquired. Consequently, the future outlook is discussed in conclusion.

math.NA↗