Enhancing Gender Equality Assessment through Object-Oriented Bayesian networks: the European Gender Equality Index Case

Abstract

A novel data-driven framework is introduced to assess gender equality by complementing and empowering a widely used European gender composite indicator, the Gender Equality Index (GEI). The GEI synthetizes the latent construct of gender equality into a single score and is extensively employed for cross-country comparison and monitoring. While effective for communication and benchmarking, this practice is affected by conceptual and methodological limitations, including marginal analysis that leaves interactions and conditional (in)dependencies unmeasured, and a lack of predictive capability. To address these limitations, this paper proposes the use of Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBNs) to model the GEI. By preserving the hierarchical structure of the index, OOBNs extend Bayesian Networks and enable a multivariate and probabilistic representation of interdependencies among the components of gender equality. This approach advances intersectional gender statistics by shifting the focus from computing a single composite score to modelling the underlying mechanisms that shape gender inequalities. The proposed methodology enhances the assessment and monitoring of gender equality and adds a predictive dimension through scenario-based evaluation, thereby supporting Gender Impact Assessment and policy decision-making. An application to Italian official statistics illustrates the practical relevance of the framework and its applicability to other national contexts and policy needs.