arXiv subjects

Paola Vicard

Publications and source records attributed to Paola Vicard.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Enhancing Gender Equality Assessment through Object-Oriented Bayesian networks: the European Gender Equality Index Case

A novel data-driven framework is introduced to assess gender equality by complementing and empowering a widely used European gender composite indicator, the Gender Equality Index (GEI). The GEI synthetizes the latent construct of gender equality into a single score and is extensively employed for cross-country comparison and monitoring. While effective for communication and benchmarking, this practice is affected by conceptual and methodological limitations, including marginal analysis that leaves interactions and conditional (in)dependencies unmeasured, and a lack of predictive capability. To address these limitations, this paper proposes the use of Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBNs) to model the GEI. By preserving the hierarchical structure of the index, OOBNs extend Bayesian Networks and enable a multivariate and probabilistic representation of interdependencies among the components of gender equality. This approach advances intersectional gender statistics by shifting the focus from computing a single composite score to modelling the underlying mechanisms that shape gender inequalities. The proposed methodology enhances the assessment and monitoring of gender equality and adds a predictive dimension through scenario-based evaluation, thereby supporting Gender Impact Assessment and policy decision-making. An application to Italian official statistics illustrates the practical relevance of the framework and its applicability to other national contexts and policy needs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Network Propensity Score to Evaluate Treatment Effects in Observational Studies

This paper focuses on the Bayesian Network Propensity Score (BNPS), a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in observational studies characterized by unknown (and likely unbalanced) designs and complex dependency structures among covariates. Traditional methods, such as logistic regression, often impose rigid parametric assumptions that may lead to misspecification errors, compromising causal inference. Recent classical and machine learning alternatives, such as boosted CART, random forests, and Stable Balancing Weights, seem to be attractive in a predictive perspective, but they typically lack asymptotic properties, such as consistency, efficiency, and valid variance estimation. In contrast, the recently proposed BNPS to estimate propensity scores uses Bayesian Networks to flexibly model conditional dependencies while preserving essential statistical properties such as consistency, asymptotic normality and asymptotic efficiency. Combined with the Hájek estimator, BNPS enables robust estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) in scenarios with strong covariate interactions and unknown data-generating mechanisms. Through extensive simulations across fifteen realistic scenarios and varying sample sizes, BNPS consistently outperforms benchmark methods in both empirical rejection rates and coverage accuracy. Finally, an application to a real-world dataset of 7,162 prostate cancer patients from San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, Italy) demonstrates BNPS's practical value in assessing the impact of pelvic lymph node dissection on hospitalization duration and biochemical recurrence. The findings support BNPS as a statistically robust, interpretable and transparent alternative for causal inference in complex observational settings, enhancing the reliability of evidence from real-world biomedical data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Testing for causal effect for binary data when propensity scores are estimated through Bayesian Networks

This paper proposes a new statistical approach for assessing treatment effect using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The goal is to draw causal inferences from observational data with a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The BNs are here used to estimate the propensity score, which enables flexible modeling and ensures maximum likelihood properties, including asymptotic efficiency. %As a result, other available approaches cannot perform better. When the propensity score is estimated by BNs, two point estimators are considered - Hájek and Horvitz-Thompson - based on inverse probability weighting, and their main distributional properties are derived for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypotheses about the absence of the treatment effect. Empirical evidence is presented to show the goodness of the proposed methodology on a simulation study mimicking the characteristics of a real dataset of prostate cancer patients from Milan San Raffaele Hospital.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

On the estimation of the Lorenz curve under complex sampling designs

This paper focuses on the estimation of the concentration curve of a finite population, when data are collected according to a complex sampling design with different inclusion probabilities. A (design-based) Hajek type estimator for the Lorenz curve is proposed, and its asymptotic properties are studied. Then, a resampling scheme able to approximate the asymptotic law of the Lorenz curve estimator is constructed. Applications are given to the construction of (i) a confidence band for the Lorenz curve, (ii) confidence intervals for the Gini concentration ratio, and (iii) a test for Lorenz dominance. The merits of the proposed resampling procedure are evaluated through a simulation study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for a decision support system for antitrust enforcement

We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two firms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent firms' potential anti-competitive behaviour and its effect on the market. The Antitrust Authority's decision process is modelled using a Bayesian network where both the relational structure and the parameters of the model are estimated from a data set provided by the Authority itself. A number of economic variables that influence this decision process are also included in the model. We analyse how monitoring by the Antitrust Authority affects firms' strategies about cooperation. Firms' strategies are modelled as a repeated prisoner's dilemma using object-oriented Bayesian networks. We show how the integration of firms' decision process and external market information can be modelled in this way. Various decision scenarios and strategies are illustrated.

cs.AI↗