Charting the Galactic Underworld I: Comprehensive simulations of the kinematics, rates, and demographics of Milky Way black holes

Abstract

With upcoming data from Roman, Gaia DR4, and spectroscopic surveys, we will soon have an unprecedented dataset of Milky Way black holes (BHs) to constrain their formation and evolution. To prepare, we simulate the intrinsic population of Milky Way BHs with cogsworth, self-consistently accounting for their binary evolution and trajectories through the Galactic potential. We report the rate, demographics, and kinematics of these BHs, and their sensitivity to 32 variations in binary evolution, supernova physics, and Galactic potentials. In the fiducial model, ~$1.7 \times 10^8$ BHs have formed in the Milky Way (though this total spans an order of magnitude across our variations), where the vast majority (~91%) are currently isolated and ~3% have escaped the Galaxy. Most of the ~$10^7$ BHs in binaries have another BH or a white dwarf companion, but ~$10^5$ retain a luminous stellar companion. BHs are distributed more diffusely than visible stars, with a scale height around ~$2.5\times$ larger. BH masses correlate with present-day location: the most massive BHs are preferentially close to the Galactic plane. This correlation is especially strong for BH-star binaries, which separate into tight, low-mass post-common-envelope systems and wide, high-mass non-interacting ones. The BH mass distribution and kinematics are highly sensitive to the remnant mass prescription and natal kick model, so observations could constrain explodability criteria and BH kicks. Accounting for the time-evolution of the Galactic potential more than doubles the escape fraction and increases the bound population's scale height by ~20%, whilst neglecting binary interactions overestimates it by 30%.