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Adrian M. Price-Whelan

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian M. Price-Whelan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

M Dwarf Singles and Multis Have Dissimilar Metallicities Indicating Different Origins

It is unclear if host star metallicities differ between systems with one detected transiting planet ("singles") or multiple detected transiting planets ("multis") around FGK dwarfs. Here, we find strong evidence that they do for M dwarfs. We use a homogeneous sample of FGK and M dwarf chemical abundances to demonstrate that M dwarf multis are significantly more metal-poor than singles ($p$ = 0.00079), even when we only consider small (<4 $R_{\oplus}$) planets ($p$ = 0.0013). This result emerges at the late-K to M dwarf transition. We observe that M dwarf multis become more metal-poor as a function of increasing planet multiplicity. Additionally, planets in singles have significantly higher eccentricities and shorter orbital periods compared to planets in multis. We interpret these findings as evidence that M dwarf singles lead relatively active dynamical lives, and the different planetary architectures of singles and multis arise from distinct dynamics influenced by metallicity. This may not occur in FGK systems because their more massive protoplanetary disks may supply enough planet-forming material to instigate dynamics that lead to only one transiting planet, even when the host star metallicity is low. Another possibility is that multis are less compact around FGK dwarfs because they form from larger disks, which may often cause them to be observed as singles in transit data.

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arXiv2026

Phase-Spirals Across Galactic Disks II: Using large-scale "macro-spirals" in phase-spiral amplitude to derive perturbation times

Phase-space spirals in the Milky Way disk are a key observable remnant of recent perturbations to the Galaxy. They provide insight into the disk's potential, dynamical evolution, past interactions, and even substructure. However, the complex dynamics of phase-spiral formation and evolution have made clear interpretations challenging. For example, recent work has shown that the "winding time" -- measured from how tightly wound a phase-spiral is -- is a biased estimate of the true time since the inciting perturbation due to the complex effects of self-gravity. In this paper series, we present an alternative approach by looking at correlations in phase-spiral morphology across the Galactic disk. Here we show that following a localized perturbative event, the ridgeline connecting the largest amplitude phase-spiral at each radius winds up into a "macro-spiral" at the rate expected for differential rotation. This means the macro-spiral can 1) be unwound to constrain the origin -- time and location -- of correlated phase-spiral properties and 2) indicate the delay in individual phase-spiral winding as a novel diagnostic of disk dynamical properties. Applying these ideas to the Milky Way's phase-spirals, we estimate a perturbation time of $\simeq 1$ Gyr ago, consistent with the penultimate passage of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy through the disk, and delay times of up to 800 Myr for phase-spirals in the inner disk. While the current application of this method to Gaia DR3 data is limited by the available radial velocities, future Gaia data releases will enable stronger constraints using a much larger area of the Galactic disk.

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arXiv2026

Extragalactic Stellar Streams in Time-Dependent Cosmological Halos

Upcoming and ongoing surveys will detect thousands of stellar streams around galaxies other than the Milky Way. Studies from the Milky Way have shown that time-dependent evolution of the Galactic halo plays a key role in shaping stellar streams, but remains unexplored for extragalactic stellar streams. We use the FIRE-2 m12m cosmological zoom-in simulation, mock observed as an extragalactic system including three stellar streams, to examine how halo time-dependence affects progenitor and host halo inference from extragalactic systems. We show that two of the three m12m streams are well reproduced in a static halo if we only allow for tidal stripping near pericenter. We apply the extragalactic stream fitting code X-Stream to each mock observed stream, and obtain constraints on the host dark matter halo and stream properties. Using on-sky morphology alone and then fixing the progenitor radial velocities, we compare recovered orbits and halo parameters to the FIRE-2 m12m ground truth. For the longest stream with a looped segment, we find unbiased strong constraints on progenitor and halo properties. For the shortest stream, we find limits on orbital parameters, but no constraints on progenitor and halo mass unless we include fainter, more extended debris. For the most massive stream, which was not well produced in a static halo, the recovered orbital parameters are biased, reflecting unmodeled time-dependence. We conclude that imaging of stream debris from extragalactic dwarf galaxies can, in some cases, be used to infer present-day dark matter halo properties, even in a cosmological environment.

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arXiv2026

A Broken Clock Is Right Twice a Day: [Ce/Mg] Is Not a Universal Chemical Clock

The ratio of $s$-process to $α$-element enrichment ($[s/α]$) has been proposed as a ``chemical clock,'' or a means to estimate stellar ages. However, the age--$[s/α]$ relation varies with metallicity and location in the Galaxy, and the observed trends are not well predicted by galactic chemical evolution models. We quantify the age--[Ce/Mg] correlation across the Galactic disk in roughly 100,000 red giant stars observed with APOGEE in the SDSS-V Milky Way Mapper survey. We find that the slope of the correlation varies significantly with metallicity and guiding radius in the chemical thin disk. The trend is steepest in the outer disk and below Solar metallicity, while the most metal-rich stars and those in the inner disk show no correlation with age. In contrast, [Ce/Mg] patterns in the chemical thick disk are consistent across the Galaxy. Halo stars have higher [Ce/Mg] than the chemical thick disk, suggesting that asymptotic giant branch (AGB) enrichment is important even at low metallicity. Overall, patterns in [Ce/Mg] trace both the local star formation history and AGB nucleosynthesis. The complex interplay between [Ce/Mg], age, metallicity, and Galactic position means that [Ce/Mg] (and by extension $[s/α]$) is not a universal chemical clock.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for the First Globular Cluster Stellar Stream beyond the Milky Way

The dark matter content of ultra-diffuse galaxies is the subject of considerable debate. Stellar streams, which form when a host galaxy tidally strips stars from an orbiting stellar system, provide a powerful technique to constrain the dark matter content of external galaxies. The stripped stars form long, thin leading and trailing tidal arms that persist for billions of years. Stellar streams from globular clusters are particularly sensitive probes of dark matter halos and substructure. Globular cluster streams are expected to exist in a variety of host galaxy types, but so far, they have only been observed in the Milky Way. We present evidence for the first extragalactic globular cluster stellar stream, identified in deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the ultra-diffuse galaxy, UGC9050-Dw1. The stream's morphology, colour, and apparent association with a compact source support the globular cluster progenitor interpretation observationally, and we reproduce the observed surface brightness with simulated globular cluster stellar populations. We use generative stream modelling, which fits dynamical models directly to the stream morphology, to constrain the mass of the progenitor and present the first stream-based halo constraint for an ultra-diffuse galaxy. The stream models point to a globular cluster origin and suggest a massive dark matter host halo. By extending the reach of globular cluster stream analysis to external galaxies, this work opens a new chapter in dark matter science.

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arXiv2026

Charting the Galactic Underworld I: Comprehensive simulations of the kinematics, rates, and demographics of Milky Way black holes

With upcoming data from Roman, Gaia DR4, and spectroscopic surveys, we will soon have an unprecedented dataset of Milky Way black holes (BHs) to constrain their formation and evolution. To prepare, we simulate the intrinsic population of Milky Way BHs with cogsworth, self-consistently accounting for their binary evolution and trajectories through the Galactic potential. We report the rate, demographics, and kinematics of these BHs, and their sensitivity to 32 variations in binary evolution, supernova physics, and Galactic potentials. In the fiducial model, ~$1.7 \times 10^8$ BHs have formed in the Milky Way (though this total spans an order of magnitude across our variations), where the vast majority (~91%) are currently isolated and ~3% have escaped the Galaxy. Most of the ~$10^7$ BHs in binaries have another BH or a white dwarf companion, but ~$10^5$ retain a luminous stellar companion. BHs are distributed more diffusely than visible stars, with a scale height around ~$2.5\times$ larger. BH masses correlate with present-day location: the most massive BHs are preferentially close to the Galactic plane. This correlation is especially strong for BH-star binaries, which separate into tight, low-mass post-common-envelope systems and wide, high-mass non-interacting ones. The BH mass distribution and kinematics are highly sensitive to the remnant mass prescription and natal kick model, so observations could constrain explodability criteria and BH kicks. Accounting for the time-evolution of the Galactic potential more than doubles the escape fraction and increases the bound population's scale height by ~20%, whilst neglecting binary interactions overestimates it by 30%.

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arXiv2026

The Milky Way - Large Magellanic Cloud Interaction with Simulation Based Inference

The infall of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) into the Milky Way (MW) has displaced the MW's centre of mass, manifesting as an observed reflex motion in the velocities of outer halo stars. We use a Simulation Based Inference framework to constrain properties of the MW, LMC and the induced reflex motion using the dynamics of outer MW halo stars. Specifically, we use the mean radial and tangential velocities of outer halo stars calculated in a set of distance and on-sky bins. We train neural networks to estimate parameter posterior distributions using a set of $128,000$ rigid MW--LMC simulations conditioned upon velocity data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the combined H3+SEGUE+MagE outer halo surveys. We constrain the reflex motion velocity and the enclosed LMC mass within $50 \, \rm kpc$ using the DESI or H3+SEGUE+MagE dataset while varying the survey sky coverage and depth. Using the radial and tangential velocity data from the H3+SEGUE+MagE survey and on-sky quadrants, we report a distance-averaged reflex motion velocity for the outer halo samples, the speed at which the MW lurches towards the LMC, of $v_{\rm{travel}} = 26.4^{+5.5}_{-4.4} \, \rm km \, \rm s^{-1}$, while simultaneously finding an enclosed LMC mass of $M_{\rm LMC}(< 50 \, \rm kpc) = 9.2^{+1.9}_{-2.3} \times 10^{10}\, \rm M_{\odot}$. Quoted uncertainties are statistical. Our results suggest that the LMC's total mass is at least $\approx 10-15 \%$ of that of the MW. This inference framework is flexible such that it can provide rapid constraints when applied to any future survey measuring the velocities of outer halo stars.

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arXiv2026

Measurement of Substructure from the Kinematics of the GD-1 Stellar Stream

Stellar streams are sensitive tracers of low-mass dark matter subhalos and provide a means to test the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm on small scales. In this work, we connect the intrinsic velocity dispersion of the GD-1 stream to the number density and internal structure of dark matter subhalos in the mass range $10^5$-$10^9 M_\odot$. We measure the radial velocity dispersion of GD-1 based on 160 identified member stars across four different spectroscopic catalogs. We use repeat observations of the same stars to constrain binarity. We find that the stream's intrinsic radial velocity dispersion ranges from approximately $2$-$5 \textrm{km} \textrm{s}^{-1}$ across its length. The region of GD-1 with the highest velocity dispersion represents a $4σ$ deviation from unperturbed stream models formed in a smooth Milky Way potential, which are substantially colder. We use perturbation theory to model the stream's velocity dispersion as a function of dark matter subhalo population parameters, including the number of low-mass subhalos in the Milky Way, the dark matter half-mode mass, and the mass-concentration relation of subhalos. We find that the observed velocity dispersion can be explained by numerous impacts with low-mass dark matter subhalos, or by a single impact with a very compact subhalo with $M \gtrsim 10^8 M_\odot$. Our constraint on the fraction of mass in subhalos is $f_{\mathrm{sub}} = 0.05^{+0.08}_{-0.03}$ (68\% confidence). In both scenarios, our model prefers subhalos that are more compact compared to CDM mass-size expectations. These results suggest a possible deviation from CDM at low subhalo masses.

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arXiv2026

No Stream Left Unscathed: The imprint of a host galaxy

Stellar streams from disrupted globular clusters are excellent probes of dark matter (DM) subhalos. Observed Milky Way streams display a remarkable diversity of features: spurs, gaps, kinks, cocoons, and density variations, many attributed to subhalo encounters. But how much of this diversity arises from the host itself? We simulate $\sim$15,000 globular cluster streams across four Milky Way-mass halos from the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations, evolved in basis function expansion potentials capturing the evolving disk, halo, and large-scale structure while excluding small-scale perturbers such as DM subhalos and giant molecular clouds. We find that roughly three quarters of streams develop complex features from the host potential, such as spurs, kinks, and cocoon-like envelopes. Even the smoothest streams exhibit 10--25\% width variation along their track and host overdensities and gaps at scales of ${\sim}2^\circ$, squarely in the $1^\circ$--$5^\circ$ range predicted for subhalo-induced gaps. Pericentric distance is the primary predictor of stream morphology, with ${\sim}15$ kpc separating smooth from disturbed streams and circular orbits beyond $\sim$20 kpc producing the smoothest streams. Only $\sim$70 out of $\sim$15,000 streams are free of detectable wiggles in the track at any scale. Analogs to observed features, such as the GD-1 spur and the ATLAS--Aliqa Uma kink, emerge even without the presence of subhalos. As next-generation surveys (LSST, Euclid, and Roman) resolve stream structure across hundreds of streams, the baseline established here, streams evolved without small-scale perturbers, becomes essential for extracting DM substructure constraints.

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arXiv2026

Quantifying the Milky Way, LMC and their interaction using all-sky kinematics of outer halo stars

The recent pericentric passage of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has dislodged the Milky Way's (MW) centre of mass, inducing dynamical disequilibrium, the reflex motion, in the kinematics of outer stellar halo stars. Using data out to $160 \, \rm kpc$ from the combined H3+SEGUE+MagE outer halo survey, we constrain the mass of the MW and LMC, as well as the resulting reflex motion and the stellar halo velocity anisotropy. Using a suite of 32,000 rigid MW--LMC simulations, each with a MW stellar halo evolved to the present day in the combined MW--LMC potential, we perform Simulation Based Inference by training a neural posterior estimator on the means and dispersions of the radial and tangential velocities of stars from the combined H3+SEGUE+MagE outer halo sample. Relative to halo stars at $100 \, \rm kpc$, we find the magnitude of the reflex velocity to be $v_{\rm travel} = 38.6^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\rm km \, s^{-1}$. Simultaneously, we determine the enclosed MW mass, $M_{\rm MW}(< 50 \, \rm kpc) = 3.36 \pm 0.15 \times 10^{11}\, \rm M_{\odot}$ and the enclosed LMC mass, $M_{\rm LMC}(< 50 \, \rm kpc) = 8.76^{+1.94}_{-1.77} \times 10^{10}\, \rm M_{\odot}$. Our results suggest that the total LMC mass must be at least $\sim20\%$ that of the MW. The velocity anisotropy prior to the LMC's infall is constrained to be $β_0 = 0.68 \pm 0.02$. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the LMC in models biases the estimated MW mass to prefer more massive values.

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arXiv2026

Semi-Analytic Modeling of Dark Matter Subhalo Encounters with Thin Stellar Streams: Statistical Predictions for GD-1-like Streams in CDM

Stellar streams from disrupted globular clusters are dynamically cold structures that are sensitive to perturbations from dark matter subhalos, allowing them in principle to trace the dark matter substructure in the Milky Way. We model, within the context of $Λ$CDM, the likelihood of dark matter subhalos to produce a significant feature in a GD-1-like stream and analyze the properties of such subhalos. We generate many realizations of the subhalo population within a Milky Way mass host halo using the semi-analytic code SatGen, accounting for effects such as tidal stripping and dynamical friction. The subhalo distributions are combined with a GD-1-like stream model, and the impact of subhalos that pass close to the stream are modeled with Gala. We find that subhalos with masses in the range $2\times 10^6 M_{\odot} - 10^8 M_{\odot}$ at the time of the stream-subhalo encounter, corresponding to masses of about $2 \times 10^7 M_{\odot} - 10^9 M_{\odot}$ at the time of infall, are the likeliest to produce gaps in a GD-1-like stream. We find that gaps occur on average $\sim$3~times per realization of the host system. These gaps have typical widths of $\sim(5 - 27)$~deg and fractional underdensities of $\sim (10 - 30)\%$, with larger gaps being caused by heavier subhalos. The stream-subhalo encounters responsible for these have impact parameters $(0.1 - 1.5)$~kpc and relative velocities $\sim(200 - 410)$~km/s. We also investigate the effects of increasing the host-halo mass on the gap properties and formation rate.

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arXiv2026

StarStream on Gaia: Stream discovery and mass loss rate of globular clusters

We apply the automatic stellar stream detection algorithm StarStream to Gaia Data Release 3 and identify 87 stellar streams associated with Galactic globular clusters (GCs), including 34 high-quality cases with median completeness and purity both exceeding 50%, as estimated from modeling mock streams. These detections double the number of known GC streams, and increase the fraction of GCs with tidal streams at high Galactic latitudes (|b| > 30 degree) to 75%. In contrast to visual expectations, many new streams are wide or short, or misaligned with their progenitors' orbits. Taking advantage of the unbiased density measurements enabled by our method, we also estimate the mass loss rate for the progenitor GCs. We find that several low-mass, large-size clusters have enhanced mass loss rates, indicating that they are approaching complete tidal disruption.

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arXiv2026

A Path to an All-Sky Survey with Roman

A deep, space-based, all-sky near-infrared survey carried out with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope would constitute a foundational astronomical infrastructure for decades to come. In this white paper, we present a concrete and feasible path to imaging the entire sky at $\sim0.1''$ resolution, beginning with high-impact fields in Cycle 1 and scaling to ultra-wide coverage within the nominal mission. This first-epoch survey will reach $\mathrm{H}\sim25.5$ AB mag (5$σ$) and maximize synergies with contemporaneous observatories, while preserving substantial time for other ambitious Roman programs. We outline representative scheduling scenarios and an example Cycle 1 program that triples early Roman-LSST overlap and delivers high-value community data products such as LSST forced photometry, joint \textit{Gaia}-Roman astrometry, and catalogs of Galactic substructure, stong lenses, and other rare systems. The Cycle 1 program will lay the foundation for an eventual all-sky survey, while also delivering high-impact early science. We invite broad community participation in shaping and carrying out both the initial program and the long-term vision of an all-sky Roman survey.

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arXiv2026

The Astrometric Resoeccentric Degeneracy: Eccentric Single Planets Mimic 2:1 Resonant Planet Pairs in Astrometry

Detections of long-period giant exoplanets will expand dramatically with Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4), but interpreting these signals will require care. We derive the astrometric resoeccentric degeneracy: an astrometric analogue of the well-known radial velocity degeneracy in which a single eccentric planet can mimic two circular planets near a 2:1 period ratio. To first order in eccentricity, the sky-projected motion of a single eccentric orbit decomposes into a fundamental mode and first harmonic with an amplitude proportional to that eccentricity. A pair of coplanar, circular planets in a 2:1 orbital resonance produces the same harmonic structure: the outer planet sets the fundamental mode, while the inner planet supplies an apparent first harmonic. We present a mapping between the harmonic amplitudes and effective eccentricity ($e_\mathrm{eff}$) of a single planet that mimics a 2:1 configuration, demonstrating that $e_\mathrm{eff} = \, 2^{1/3}(M_{p,2}/M_{p,1})$, the masses of the inner and outer planets, respectively. Using simulated Gaia data we show that (1) coplanar 2:1 systems are statistically indistinguishable from a single eccentric planet and (2) mutual inclination can break this degeneracy. This bias favors detecting mutually inclined systems, often fingerprints of a dynamically hot history -- traces for processes such as planet-planet scattering or secular chaos. Determining the planetary architectures in which this degeneracy holds will be essential for measuring cool-giant occurrence rates with Gaia and for inferring their dynamical evolution histories.

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arXiv2026

The Milky Way's circular velocity curve measured using element abundance gradients

Spectroscopic surveys now supply precise stellar label measurements such as element abundances for large samples of stars throughout the Milky Way. These element abundances are known to correlate with orbital actions or other dynamical invariants. We present a new data-driven method for empirically measuring the circular velocity curve of the Galaxy that uses element abundance gradients in the plane of radial kinematics. We use stellar surface abundances from the $\textit{APOGEE}$ survey combined with kinematic data from the $\textit{Gaia}$ mission. Our results confirm the ordered structure of the Milky Way disk in terms of average [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] abundance ratios, and suggest that $\langle$[Fe/H]$\rangle$ traces the radial position of stars in the disk, while $\langle$[Mg/Fe]$\rangle$ traces the orbital excursions around this radius. Our method uses the radial orbit structure in the Galaxy to enable an empirical measurement of the circular velocity curve, epicyclic and azimuthal frequencies, and kinematic gradients across the Milky Way disk. From these measurements, we infer a value of the circular velocity curve at the Solar radius of $v_{c,\odot} = 235.3^{+2.8}_{-3.7}$ km s$^{-1}$ using the most constraining abundance ratio, [Mg/Fe]. We also measure the radial and azimuthal frequencies for a circular orbit at the solar radius, $κ_{0,R_\odot}=36.9^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ and $Ω_{0,R_\odot}=28.5_{-0.1}^{+0.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$, respectively. These values lead to an estimate of the Oort constants of $A = 16.5^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ and $B=-11.9^{+0.1}_{-0.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$. We measure the radial acceleration at the Solar radius to be $(\frac{\partial Φ}{\partial R})_{\odot} = a_{R_\odot}=7.0^{+0.2}_{-0.1}$ pc Myr$^{-2}$.

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arXiv2026

The Milky Way Bulge Extra-Tidal Star Survey: NGC 6569

We present spectroscopic evidence for tidal debris associated with the bulge globular cluster NGC 6569, based on medium-resolution (R ~ 11,000) Anglo-Australian Telescope spectra of 303 stars. Targets were selected using Blanco DECam Bulge Survey (BDBS) photometry and Gaia DR3 astrometry, spanning 7-30 arcmin (~1-5 rt, where rt is the King-model tidal radius) from the cluster center. Orbit-based modeling predicts a strongly time-variable Jacobi radius, with rJ ~ 8-11 arcmin near pericenter and ~18-22 arcmin near apocenter, so stars just outside rt can be unbound and feeding leading and lagging tidal tails. We identify 40 stars with kinematics and abundances consistent with previous, or borderline, cluster membership. The seven highest-quality candidates (S/N > 30) have mean [Fe/H] = -0.83 +/- 0.14 and [alpha/Fe] = +0.38 +/- 0.06 dex, matching the bound population. Interpreting these stars as recently stripped debris implies a present-day mass-loss rate of 1.0-1.6 solar masses per Myr, or 5.6 +/- 1.3% of the current cluster mass per Gyr. These results indicate ongoing tidal stripping of NGC 6569 and quantify its contribution to the bulge field. This paper is part of the Milky Way Bulge Extra-Tidal Star Survey (MWBest) and is our first detailed debris study of a massive bulge globular cluster.

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arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1,024 Milky Way-mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a $Λ$CDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA Survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

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arXiv2025

A Simulation Based Inference Approach to the Dynamics of the MW-LMC System -- Validation

The infall of the LMC into the Milky Way (MW) has generated dynamical disequilibrium throughout the MW. The interaction has displaced the MW's centre of mass, manifesting as an apparent 'reflex motion' in velocities of outer halo stars. Often, expensive high fidelity MW--LMC simulations are required to model these effects, though the range of model parameter spaces can be large and complex. We investigate the ability of lower fidelity, rigid MW-LMC simulations to reliably infer the model parameters of higher fidelity N-body and hydrodynamical cosmological zoom-in MW--LMC simulations using a Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approach. We produce and release a set of 128,000 MW--LMC rigid potentials, with stellar haloes evolved to present-day, each adopting a unique combination of model parameters including the MW mass, the LMC mass and the dynamical friction strength. For these simulation parameters, we use SBI to find their posterior distributions. We find that our SBI framework trained on rigid MW--LMC simulations is able to correctly infer the true simulation LMC mass within a $1σ$ confidence interval from both N-body and cosmological simulations when knowledge of the induced MW reflex motion is provided as data. This motivates future applications of the presented SBI framework to observational data, which will help constrain both MW and LMC properties, as well as the dynamics of the MW's reflex motion.

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