From Heat Stress to Perception: Interpretable Data-Driven Models of Human Thermal Sensation

Abstract

Heat stress indices are designed to quantify physiological thermal stress, but their relevance for inferring the thermal perception of individuals remains unclear. In this study, we show that thermal stress and thermal sensation often diverge, as evidenced by distinct global sensitivity patterns with respect to environmental drivers. Using thermal sensation vote survey data, we demonstrate that the dominant sensitivities of stress-based metrics do not align with those governing reported human thermal sensation. Given the multitude of globally-applicable thermal stress indices and the lack of comparable general thermal sensation metrics, we develop two complementary data-driven modeling frameworks for thermal sensation. First, we construct polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates to represent thermal sensation as a function of meteorological variables, enabling efficient variance-based sensitivity analysis and explicit identification of influential inputs and interactions. Second, we develop multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifiers that capture the nonlinear and subjective nature of thermal perception, while achieving high predictive accuracy. The PCE models provide physically interpretable sensitivities that can explain the drivers of thermal sensation, while the MLPs offer flexible predictive capability suited to complex environments. We apply both modeling approaches at city- and continent-scales, revealing systematic differences in sensitivity structure and performance across climates. In particular, we find that the sensitivity of TSV-based models to the variability of meteorological conditions across geoclimatic zone encodes distinct dependencies on temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind that vary geographically, and are generally different from those of heat stress indices.