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arXiv · 2608.13327

Breaking the Chain: Division Norms and Criminal Deterrence

Constantine Sorokin·Alexander Nesterov·Alexei Savvateev
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Abstract

In organized crime, membership moves fastest, deterrence capacity moves more slowly, and division norms move slowest. We model this in three stages: division norms fix how every possible coalition divides its proceeds; the authority then attaches deterrence capacity to named members before knowing which coalition will form; membership adjusts last, around whoever remains undeterred. Under population-monotone division, the minimum deterrence budget is the cost of a shortest dismantling path, removing one member at a time. When the Shapley value is population monotone, it uniquely maximizes this budget by making every path equally costly.

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Constantine Sorokin, Alexander Nesterov, Alexei Savvateev. 2026-08-13. Breaking the Chain: Division Norms and Criminal Deterrence. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13327

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