The properties of the first continuous gravitational waves: Optimizing pulsar timing observations for supermassive black hole binary detection

Abstract

Several pulsar timing arrays have reported evidence for a nanohertz gravitational-wave background. This background is thought to arise from the superposition of signals from a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries. A key test of this interpretation is the search for individually resolvable binaries whose signals emerge above this background. Here we investigate this possibility by addressing two related questions: (1) what are the most probable properties of the first resolvable binary; and (2) how can pulsar timing observations be optimized to maximize its prospects for electromagnetic identification? By simulating populations of supermassive black hole binaries constrained by evidence for the gravitational-wave background and studying the loudest binary in each simulation, we infer the expected properties of the first individually resolvable systems. If MeerKAT continues its current observing strategy for a total of 9 years, the probability of detecting an individual binary is $\approx10-27\%$. Improving the timing precision by a factor of two changes this probability to $\approx11-28\%$, whereas increasing the cadence by a factor of four gives $\approx12-30\%$. Combining both improvements yields a detection probability of $\approx12-33\%$. Furthermore, implementing a high-cadence observing campaign preferentially resolves higher-frequency systems ($\gtrsim\unit[10]{nHz}$), whose shorter orbital periods make them considerably easier to identify through electromagnetic observations than lower-frequency binaries that repeat infrequently. We discuss prospects of electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational-wave resolved binaries with current high-cadence all-sky optical surveys.