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arXiv · 2608.28395

Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade

R. Abbasi·M. Ackermann·J. Adams·J. A. Aguilar·M. Ahlers·J. M. Alameddine·S. Ali·N. M. Amin·K. Andeen·C. Arg{ü}elles·S. Athanasiadou·S. N. Axani·R. Babu·X. Bai·A. Balagopal V.·S. W. Barwick·V. Basu·R. Bay·J. J. Beatty·J. Becker Tjus·P. Behrens·J. Beise·C. Bellenghi·S. Benkel·S. BenZvi·D. Berley·E. Bernardini·D. Z. Besson·E. Blaufuss·L. Bloom·S. Blot·F. Bontempo·J. Y. Book Motzkin·C. Boscolo Meneguolo·S. B{ö}ser·O. Botner·J. B{ö}ttcher·J. Braun·B. Brinson·Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis·L. Brusa·R. T. Burley·D. Butterfield·K. Carloni·J. Carpio·N. Chau·Y. C. Chen·Z. Chen·D. Chirkin·S. Choi·A. Chubarov·B. A. Clark·D. A. Coloma Borja·A. Connolly·J. M. Conrad·D. F. Cowen·C. De Clercq·J. J. DeLaunay·D. Delgado·T. Delmeulle·S. Deng·P. Desiati·K. D. de Vries·G. de Wasseige·T. DeYoung·J. C. D{\'ı}az-V{é}lez·S. DiKerby·T. Ding·M. Dittmer·A. Domi·L. Draper·L. Dueser·D. Durnford·K. Dutta·M. A. DuVernois·T. Ehrhardt·L. Eidenschink·A. Eimer·C. Eldridge·P. Eller·E. Ellinger·D. Els{ä}sser·R. Engel·H. Erpenbeck·W. Esmail·S. Eulig·J. Evans·P. A. Evenson·K. L. Fan·K. Fang·K. Farrag·A. Fattorini·A. R. Fazely·A. Fedynitch·N. Feigl·C. Finley·D. Fox·A. Franckowiak·S. Fukami·P. F{ü}rst
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Abstract

Embedded in the South Pole's glacial ice, IceCube detects neutrino-induced Cherenkov light using an array of digital optical modules equipped with single photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The new extension installed in 2025/2026, the IceCube Upgrade, introduces densely instrumented multi-PMT optical modules within the existing infill array known as IceCube DeepCore. It is expected to enhance sensitivity in the GeV regime, with commissioning of the detector expected to be complete by the end of 2026. We present the projected sensitivities of the IceCube Upgrade for three key analyses: neutrino transient searches, steady emission from point sources such as NGC 1068, and diffuse emission from the Milky Way. These case studies represent direct extensions of current IceCube analyses. Using new Monte Carlo datasets, we demonstrate that the IceCube Upgrade achieves order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity at low energies ($\lesssim 10$ GeV) for time-dependent sources across short timescales. Conversely, for time-independent searches, the relative impact of the IceCube Upgrade's low-energy data is diluted by the decade-long accumulation of high-energy archival data. Nevertheless, we project significant improvements for soft-spectrum sources especially across the southern sky, driven by the IceCube Upgrade's superior background rejection capabilities. The improved sensitivity at low energies for both transient and steady sources will open up an expanded discovery window for IceCube in the GeV band over the next decade.

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R. Abbasi, M. Ackermann, J. Adams, J. A. Aguilar, M. Ahlers, J. M. Alameddine, S. Ali, N. M. Amin, K. Andeen, C. Arg{ü}elles, S. Athanasiadou, S. N. Axani, R. Babu, X. Bai, A. Balagopal V., S. W. Barwick, V. Basu, R. Bay, J. J. Beatty, J. Becker Tjus, P. Behrens, J. Beise, C. Bellenghi, S. Benkel, S. BenZvi, D. Berley, E. Bernardini, D. Z. Besson, E. Blaufuss, L. Bloom, S. Blot, F. Bontempo, J. Y. Book Motzkin, C. Boscolo Meneguolo, S. B{ö}ser, O. Botner, J. B{ö}ttcher, J. Braun, B. Brinson, Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis, L. Brusa, R. T. Burley, D. Butterfield, K. Carloni, J. Carpio, N. Chau, Y. C. Chen, Z. Chen, D. Chirkin, S. Choi, A. Chubarov, B. A. Clark, D. A. Coloma Borja, A. Connolly, J. M. Conrad, D. F. Cowen, C. De Clercq, J. J. DeLaunay, D. Delgado, T. Delmeulle, S. Deng, P. Desiati, K. D. de Vries, G. de Wasseige, T. DeYoung, J. C. D{\'ı}az-V{é}lez, S. DiKerby, T. Ding, M. Dittmer, A. Domi, L. Draper, L. Dueser, D. Durnford, K. Dutta, M. A. DuVernois, T. Ehrhardt, L. Eidenschink, A. Eimer, C. Eldridge, P. Eller, E. Ellinger, D. Els{ä}sser, R. Engel, H. Erpenbeck, W. Esmail, S. Eulig, J. Evans, P. A. Evenson, K. L. Fan, K. Fang, K. Farrag, A. Fattorini, A. R. Fazely, A. Fedynitch, N. Feigl, C. Finley, D. Fox, A. Franckowiak, S. Fukami, P. F{ü}rst. 2026-08-28. Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28395

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