Covariance Kernels on Unordered Pair Spaces: Theory and Applications to Network-Valued Data

Abstract

Many scientific problems are relational: the quantity of interest is a connection between two objects, while information about similarity is available for the objects themselves. We develop a covariance framework for unordered relationships that transfers object-level geometry to the relations they form while preserving endpoint identity and invariance to ordering. Building on symmetric pairwise-kernel representations, we develop theory for the loop-free domains used in undirected networks. We establish spectral interlacing and trace-loss results after self-pairs are removed, connect the relational spectrum to regularization and risk, derive an exact inferential error for spectral truncation, and quantify how perturbations of the underlying geometry propagate to pair covariance and estimation. Simulations show when structured borrowing improves estimation and how geometric misspecification can erode that benefit. We apply the framework to autism neuroimaging using resting-state functional-connectivity data from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE). With a 116-region parcellation and 6,670 unique connections, the application shows that a large connectome can have a much smaller effective covariance dimension. It also demonstrates that high explained covariance alone is insufficient for choosing a low-rank representation when inferential accuracy is the goal. The framework provides a principled foundation for covariance and regularization when the statistical units are unordered relationships.